The head of East Timor's armed forces stepped down last week, leading to speculation he may be preparing to run for President in nest year's elections.

Major General Taur Matan Ruak is a veteran of East Timor's independence struggles and a high profile military man.

Presenter: Liam Cochrane

Speaker: Professor Damien Kingsbury, School of International and Political Studies at Deakin University

Kingsbury: Well, that's a good question, he hasn't specifically stated why his resigned. He certainly had a good run as leader of Falintil East Timor Defence Force, but, of course, there is considerable speculation now that he's got into high on a political career.

Cochrane: And as a leading figure in the military, how popular is he?

Kingsbury: Look, military figures have high standing in East Timor. Taur Matan Ruak was the head of Falintil until the guerilla organisation, after the arrest of Xanana Gusmao in the early 90s. So he certainly has a very high profile and he's very well known. The real question is whether he would have sufficient support to run for a position such as the presidency and whether he would have the backing of any particular political parties. At this stage, I think Fretilin will be supporting Francisco "Lu'Olo" Guterres, their last candidate and he was also one of the guerilla fighters in Falintil, so he's a strong candidate. Jose Ramos Horta, the current president may stand again. He's obviously going to be a very popular candidate if he goes and there will be a whole host of others who will have the support of their parties. It's not clear at this stage if Taur Matan Ruak would have support of a political party.

Cochrane: Is there any indication about whether President Jose Ramos Horta will be running again. He's sort of kept his cards pretty close to his chest so far?

Kingsbury: Yes, there's some ambiguity about that. He's indicated at different times that perhaps he wouldn't run, but he's made a very substantial contribution to the East Timorese political life over very many years and of course he was shot a few years ago and to some extent, although he's recovered very well. I think that did take his toll on him and perhaps he's now saying it's time to step back and let others have a go. But on the other hand, there's also a view that perhaps that generation of political leadership needs to stay in the saddle for one more round in order to allow a younger generation to become better grounded so that they can take over in a few years time.

Cochrane: If Taur Matan Ruak does take a tilt at the presidency next year, is there an understanding as to which party he might align himself with?

Kingsbury: No, no, that's the key point at this stage that there's no clear political alignment there and I think that for him to have a strong chance at the presidency, he would need the backing of one of the larger parties, such as CNRT. At this stage, that's not at all clear that he would have that sort of backing. So, of course, politics in East Timor is always a little bit fluid and there's always going to be some discussion around that. But I think that if Jose Ramos Horta was to stand again, that he would probably receive most if not all of the backing that he received in 2007 and that would probably include all of the major parties, but Fretilin.

Cochrane: Who has replaced the major general at the top of the armed forces?

Kingsbury: Lere (Anan) Timur a former commander of the eastern zone of East Timor has now assumed the leadership of the East Timor defence force. Lere's also a guerilla from the Falintil days, the anti-Indonesia days and he has a very strong standing. He's very well known. Lere's understood to be something of a military hardliner in that he regards civilian politics as useful only for as long as it works well and to some extent Taur Matan Ruak has also had a sceptical view of civilian politics, particularly around issues of 2006, where there was a view that if the civilians couldn't run the country properly, then perhaps there needed to be a bit more intervention from military, a bit more control from the military. Fortunately that wasn't ultimately the case. But I think when we look at Lere, he's certainly of that view that the East Timor defence force should have a stronger role in domestic affairs, particularly around policing type activities and so on and that's obviously quite controversial.