Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Military officials and analysts foresee no significant threats from foreign countries, as the Armed Forces prepare to meet next week to discuss its future role.
"I predict that there will be no military or war threat against us. But we must face a more dangerous threat of globalization," said Air Vice Marshal Sagom Tamboen, a military spokesman.
The Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) will hold a national meeting next week to examine the existing and future threats faced by the country and to set out a new doctrine that will guide its role, he said.
"We hope that this time, we finish the new doctrine. The direction [of the national meeting] is how to establish a new doctrine that fits with the laws and current situations," Sagom said.
During former President Suharto's 32-years of authoritarian rule, the military was the most powerful institution in the country. However, the Armed Forces revised its doctrine in 2007 by issuing the "Tri Dharma Eka Karma," which stressed that the TNI was no longer in politics. It also stipulated that the main task of the TNI was to defend national sovereignty and eradicate any enemies on behalf of the state.
"The new doctrine will affect everything, including how to form the defense posture, how we should prepare strategy in carrying out our duties," Sagom said. "For us, this doctrine is like a vein," he added. "We cannot do the job without it."
Another issue that will be discussed during the meeting is how to empower the TNI and its troops "in the context of non-military operations," he said. "We would like enhance cooperation with other government institutions, including in some research projects."
He added that the military would also discuss how to optimize its strengths when guarding border areas.
Andi Widjajanto, a military analyst at the University of Indonesia, said the TNI should base its new doctrine and threat perception on what has already been laid out by the Ministry of Defense.
"I think the 2010-2019 strategic defense review by the ministry could be made as the basic reference for the military during their meeting," Andi said.
When asked about future challenges to Indonesia, Andi said that there would be no significant military threat for Indonesia from foreign countries in the next 20 years.
He predicted that the military would define all border areas – especially the waters off Kalimantan and Ambalat that have been disputed with Malaysia – and regions prone to local conflict like Papua as flash points that needed more troops.
"I think they will increase the threat level of Papua because, beside the existence of the Free Papua Movement, we can see more intertribal conflict happening there," he said.
"Depending on conditions, maybe the military will support the previous Army chief's suggestion to establish a new military command in the province."
The Army had earlier announced that it planned to establish a military command in West Kalimantan in 2010, while a study for a possible new command in Papua is expected to begin next year.
Andi added that the Ministry of Defense's 2009-2029 strategy did not include plans to establish a new command in Papua.
Hari T Prihartono, a military analyst from the Pro-Patria Institute, suggested that the TNI also needed to revise its doctrine related to the professional military principle.
"They need to add other points like ethics and rewards and punishments for soldiers, which will be useful for establishing a more professional military and soldiers," Hari said. "We can't find this issue in the previous doctrine."