The killing of Papuan rebel commander Kelly Kwalik may only fuel anti-Indonesian sentiment in the restive territory, underlining the need for talks with separatist leaders, analysts said.
Indonesia has succeeded in resolving separatist violence in Aceh and the Malukus since the fall of the Suharto dictatorship, but the resource-rich region of Papua remains an embarrassing thorn in Jakarta's side.
Analysts said Kwalik's shooting by police last Wednesday would not prove fatal to the poorly armed Free Papua Movement (OPM) guerrillas, and could even strengthen separatist sentiment among Papua's ethnic Melanesian majority.
"Kwalik's death will intensify the Papuan people's struggle for independence," said Indonesian analyst Muridan Widjojo, who has been involved in efforts to foster trust and dialogue between the two sides.
"There will be growing distrust among Papuans towards the central government. This is a strong reason why a peaceful dialogue becomes an urgent need."
He said that although Kwalik was one of the most active OPM commanders and was the backbone of the insurgency around the strategic town of Timika, which serves a massive US-owned gold mine, other militants could take his place.
Another six OPM leaders are still at large across Indonesia's easternmost region who could increase attacks on security forces and other symbols of Indonesian rule as revenge for Kwalik's death, he warned.
"In this case, there's no other way but to hold peaceful dialogue in order to prevent a possible backlash," Widjojo said, adding that Kwalik's death was a blow to tentative, informal talks that had already taken place.
Analysts said Kwalik had been promoting dialogue through the West Papua National Coalition for Liberation, an umbrella organisation of independence groups which has been seeking talks with Jakarta.
But police said he was wanted over a string of ambushes near Timika over the past six months targeting the operations of US miner Freeport McMoRan.
Freeport's giant Grasberg mine, which sits on one of the world's biggest gold and copper reserves to the north of Timika, has long been linked to human rights abuses involving Indonesian troops who secure the facility.
Australian mine technician Drew Grant was killed in one of the mysterious ambushes in July.
Kwalik, who was 60 when he died, denied responsibility for the shootings and some analysts believe the ambushes could be the work of rogue Indonesian police or soldiers seeking more money from Freeport.
Kwalik was also accused over the killing of two American mine workers in 2002, and eight Javanese students in 1986. He also allegedly kidnapped a team of European scientists in 1996 and two Belgian journalists in 2001.
Papuan human rights advocate Theo Hesegem condemned the shooting of Kwalik and said his death would only disrupt efforts to promote dialogue.
"If this kind of violent approach continues to be used, the Papuan people will become more convinced that they have to be separated from Indonesia," he said.
Australian academic Damien Kingsbury, of Deakin University, was involved in the negotiations that clinched a peace deal in Aceh in 2005 and believes Kwalik's death has created "new opportunities" for a settlement in Papua.
"The death of Kwalik, as a hardliner, may... allow the West Papua Coalition an opportunity to streamline its internal negotiating position," he wrote in The Sydney Morning Herald last week.
"The question will be, in his second and final term of office, whether Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is serious about taking up the option of negotiation."