Erwida Maulia and Novan Iman Santosa, Jakarta – There is speculation at the medium-term reasons motivating a "sudden unexpected" move by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to install new chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force on Monday.
For some observers the speculation goes as far as interpreting it as a move towards securing Yudhoyono's political hegemony, and to pave the way for his eldest son Capt. Agus Harimurti to take up the succession.
Yudhoyono is scheduled to swear in Lt. Gen. George Toisuta, Vice Adm. Agus Suhartono and Rear Marshal Imam Sufaat as the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, respectively, on Monday.
George will replace Gen. Agustadi Sasongko, Vice Adm. Agus will take over the position of Adm. Tedjo Edhy Purdijanto, and Imam will replace Marshal Subandrio.
"SBY wants all the new chiefs of staff to be under his control," military observer from Bandung's Parahyangan University, Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
"It is likely that the appointment of George Toisuta as the new Army chief of staff is intended to promote his brother-in-law Maj. Gen. Edhi Wibowo as the new commander of Siliwangi Military Command."
Banyu explained that after serving as Siliwangi commander, it would be easier for Edhi to become the next Army Strategic Command (Kostrad) chief, then the next Army chief of staff, and finally the Indonesian Military (TNI) commander.
The ultimate goal, he said, could be to smoothen the promotion of Capt. Agus' in the TNI to help him emerge as Indonesia's new leader.
Meanwhile, Bantarto Bandoro of University of Indonesia, said Toisuta himself could be Yudhoyono's close aide and then be promoted as the next TNI chief in two or three years. "So the President is placing people who will help him securing his position," he told the Post.
Bantarto predicted the promotion of the new chiefs was a stepping stone that Yudhoyono was using before replacing National Police chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri.
Bambang is facing mounting demands to step down after controversial records revealed the involvement of several police officers in an alleged framing of two deputy chiefs of the Corruption Eradication Commission, Chandra Hamzah and Bibit Samad Riyanto, "He (Yudhoyono) needs to respond to mounting public pressure, otherwise it will reduce his popularity," Bantarto said.
Both Bantarto and Banyu considered the appointment of the new chiefs of staff as "surprising" and "unexpected", saying it was very fast for the new government.
But, military analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Jaleswari Pramowardhani, told the Post that the replacement of the three military chiefs was something normal and not sudden.
"The TNI high-ranking promotion and duty rotation council (Wanjakti) has held meetings to discuss the replacement of three-star positions since late August," she said. "The positions of chiefs of staff can be decided by the President without involving the council."
She added the three new chiefs of staff deserved promotion while Banyu said the track records of the new Air Force and Navy chiefs were "relatively unknown".
Previously Vice Adm. Agus was the Defense Ministry inspector general while Imam was chief of the Air Force Operational Command I.
Air Force chief spokesman Cmdr. Bambang Sulistyo told the Post that Imam would report Monday morning to TNI chief Gen. Djoko Santoso on his promotion as Air Force deputy chief of staff with the rank vice marshal.
Imam will then head to the Presidential Palace to be installed as Air Force chief of staff, a four-star position. This means Imam will only held his position as deputy chief of staff for one day.
"The hand over ceremony will be held Thursday at the Halim Perdanakusumah Air Force Base on Thursday," said Cmdr. Bambang.