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SBY's Timorese triumph

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Far Eastern Economic Review - July 21, 2008

Sahil K. Mahtani – Unlike his predecessors, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono can hardly be accused of shooting from the hip. He almost never appears in public without prepared remarks and has a reputation for choosing his words carefully. Tempo, the Indonesian political magazine, called his style "well-disciplined," even down to "coordinated body movements."

That trademark precision was on full display last Tuesday when Mr. Yudhoyono accepted a report from the Timorese and Indonesian joint Commission on Truth and Friendship that posited Indonesian governmental complicity in atrocities committed in East Timor nine years ago.

Given Jakarta's previous reluctance to own up to human rights abuses, the president's admission was notable for the ease with which it was delivered and received. Mr. Yudhoyono, in masterful political fashion, managed to defuse a potentially damaging political situation by simultaneously satisfying the Timorese, placating his domestic audience, and garnering international praise. In the process, he may have even hobbled several of his major political opponents for the general election in 2009.

It began with his speech. In accepting the report, Mr. Yudhoyono used the phrase penyesalan sangat mendalam, meaning the deepest remorse, whereas one might have expected him to use meminta maaf, literally to beg forgiveness, or apologize.

Newspapers did not know what to make of Mr. Yudhoyono's statement, yielding headlines with diametrically opposite messages. Some papers ran with "No apology coming for Timor abuses," (the Chicago Tribune) while others opted for "Indonesia admits guilt over Timor" (the Sydney Morning Herald).

So did Mr. Yudhoyono apologize or did he parry? It seems almost churlish to ask the question while the Timorese are prepared to accept the remarks. "What's the difference of apology and remorse? How do you measure this?" asked Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao after the ceremony. "He apologized."

Yet this is precisely what he didn't do. The day before the report was released, Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono foreshadowed Mr. Yudhoyono's speech by telling parliament explicitly, "There will be no apology; it is only about remorse, which is deep regret by both parties, from both governments."

This is as clear an indication as one will get of the government's intent in phrasing its words in that way. Jakarta did not intend to apologize and Mr. Yudhoyono's words reflected these intentions precisely.

Still, the president's carefully crafted statement satisfied several constituencies and, in doing so, defused a potential debacle.

The fervently nationalist domestic audience, for whom the independence of East Timor is still remembered as a huge blow to Indonesian sovereignty, may not have been entirely happy with the outcome. Already an influential member of the nationalist PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle) has called for the army (TNI) to reject the recommendations of the Commission on the reasoning – if it can be called that – that Indonesia cannot be accused by a country as small as East Timor. Another parliamentarian criticized the attribution of "moral punishment" to the Indonesian people. Nevertheless, by not using the term "apologize," Mr. Yudhoyono dodged a groundswell of nationalist reaction.

The second constituency Mr. Yudhoyono probably hoped to satisfy was his international audience, which will see the any rapprochement with Dili as further positive evidence of Indonesia's post-Suharto transition and of the increasing role the world's largest Muslim country could play in promoting peace internationally. This could be done, for example, by mediating the recent talks between Palestine and Israel-Indonesia does not officially recognize Israel but maintains extensive unofficial ties with the Jewish state.

The third and final aspect of Mr. Yudhoyono's decision-making involved his own prospects in the general election of 2009. His political opponents, retired General Wiranto and career military officer Prabowo, now presidential candidates, both receive a measure of blame in the commission's report. The latter was accused of human rights abuses in Jakarta in 1998 and in East Timor in 1999. As for Gen. Wiranto, just last week former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer claimed that "as the defense minister [he] absolutely knew what was going on" in East Timor, though "he simply didn't have the strength to stop it."

Gen. Wiranto in particular has been scoring points off SBY with recent advertisements in the Indonesian media-a striking illustration of Indonesia's new vibrant political culture-accusing the president of having "violated his promise" to keep fuel prices low. This may have contributed to the upsurge in Gen. Wiranto's popularity in recent weeks-his approval rating has moved to about 9% in June from 4% in January according to figures from local pollsters Indobarometer and Lembaga Survei Indonesia, respectively. President Yudhoyono, meanwhile, has suffered a corresponding decline in popularity; where previously he was in the lead, now he oscillates between first and second place with Megawati Sukarnoputri.

The commission's report could put a damper on Gen. Wiranto's momentum. Marcus Mietzner, a lecturer at the Australian National University in Canberra who spent a decade in Jakarta working on military reform issues, said that the Timor atrocities issue haunts Gen. Wiranto time and time again. For instance, he briefly held the post of Coordinating Minister of Defense & Security in 2000, until the United Nations Serious Crimes Unit in Dili called for an international tribunal to try him. In 2004, while he was running for president, the issue again came to the fore.

Moreover, another retired general, Hendropriyono, now closely linked with former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso's presidential campaign, was also mentioned in the report. The commission's report is a potential game-changer in the way it hobbles not just one but several of Yudhoyono's high-profile political opponents.

But, as Agus Wijoyo, a retired Indonesian general and member of the 10-man commission, emphasized to the Review, "those are never new names." He explains, "Our task was not to investigate but to research. Our priority was that our report be credible to both sides rather than agreed fully by one side and rejected fully by the other."

That took some finessing. As part of the effort to preserve bilateral credibility, the core of the commission's report itself does not mention any names, concerning itself less with individual responsibility than with institutional responsibility. Names are only mentioned in the document review at the beginning and the appendix of interviews at the end. "It may be an elegant way, mentioning people not in the report but in the testimony attached," said Mr. Mietzner, the lecturer.

By all accounts, Yudhoyono and the commission succeeded in their delicate balancing act, generating a triad of Timorese acceptance, international praise, and domestic quiescence. Not only have they defused any potential political fallout, they may have even improved Mr. Yudhoyono's electoral chances for next year while creating space for domestic reform within.

TNI chief Gen. Djoko Santoso, who was appointed in February 2005 as a replacement to his more brash and outspoken predecessor General Ryamizard Ryacudu, has already accepted the Commission's report, acknowledging "TNIs responsibility" and saying he will "wait for whatever action the government considers taking next."

"I think it is in line with SBY's general direction in pushing for general reform in Indonesian institutions," says James Fox, a distinguished anthropologist of Indonesia and the former director of the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University. But he adds, "Institutional responsibility without individual responsibility leaves things up in the air." Mr. Fox notes the lingering ambiguity the report leaves behind: "While claiming to put an end to these issues, it opens the book to the next chapter."

[Mr. Sahil Mahtani is a Bartley Fellow at the Far Eastern Economic Review.]

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