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Year of confidence building

Source
Jakarta Post Editorial - December 31, 2007

As the curtains open on the new year we will note down 2007 as the year of a greatly bullish stock market with a rise of over 50 percent in the composite index, making it among the best performers in Asia. The economy was robust with an estimated growth of 6.3 percent, the highest over the past decade.

We take pride in our success in hosting the two-week United Nations conference on climate change in Bali early this month which was attended by around 10,000 delegates from about 190 countries.

But we will also remember 2007 for a string of airline accidents, earthquakes and avoidable environmental disasters such as devastating floods and landslides.

In fact we entered 2007 with the crashing into the sea off Sulawesi island of an Adam Air jetliner on Jan. 1, which killed 102 passengers, including three Americans.

Less than ten weeks later another Boeing 737-400 operated by national flag-carrier Garuda Indonesia, burst into flames upon landing in Yogyakarta killing 23, including five Australians. After several more aircraft accidents, but none causing casualties, in early July the European Union banned all Indonesian airplanes from its airspace, greatly concerned with what it deemed utterly unacceptable safety standards.

This year, like 2006, saw its share of natural disasters, beginning with devastating floods in early February that paralyzed almost 70 percent of Jakarta for three days, killed almost two dozen people and made nearly 350,000 homeless. Earlier in mid-January a deadly landslide killed more than 25 on Sangihe island, North Sulawesi. Then five days before the end of the year, major landslides and floods killed more than 85 people in Central Java.

We also had major earthquakes killing around 23 in West Sumatra and neighboring Bengkulu in mid-September.

On a positive note, though, there were no major forest fires during the last dry season. As regards security, we should be grateful that we didn't have major terrorist attacks.

Our democratic process went forward but with too many excesses and an unusually high learning cost, as immature members of parliament wasted time debating trivial matters of no direct benefit to the people. No wonder many reform measures badly needed to reinvigorate the economy and build stronger foundations for good governance are several years behind schedule.

We can't expect too much from the House of Representatives next year either, in the way of advancing the crucial legislative agenda, as many members will be preoccupied with the programs of their respective political parties as they gear up for the 2009 presidential and general elections. Many of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Cabinet members will be similarly preoccupied.

But in spite of this acute lack of statesmanship, we can't be too pessimistic as we enter 2008 because, as we noted at the outset, the robust growth this year gives us confidence in our ability to expand our economy despite unfavorable external factors – steep oil prices, weakening global economy, an international credit crunch.

Certainly we should not be complacent with the rosy macroeconomic indicators, because our poverty rate remains high at more than 35 million (16 percent of the population) and the number of people on the verge of absolute poverty is still more than 100 million.

Unemployment and underemployment also remain high as each percentage point of economic growth now generates fewer jobs in the formal sector than it did in the early 2000s. This is because the highest rate of growth took place in non-tradable sectors (services) and not in the real (manufacturing) sector that generates most jobs.

Amid uncertainty about the global economy and financial markets, the journey forward will be uphill. We should rely mostly on domestic consumption (private and public) as the main driver of economic growth. Consensus forecasts among analysts put our economic growth for next year at around at least 6.5 percent.

However, even if many Cabinet members would be preoccupied with the business of their respective political parties, Boediono's economic team can act as the automatic pilot of our economic management. That was what Boediono did during the 2004 general and presidential elections when he was the minister of finance.

We can rest assured that our economic management will remain prudent, protected from vested-interest politicians. Chief economics minister Boediono and Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu, his core team, with the support of politically independent Bank Indonesia, can become the bedrock of our fiscal and monetary stability.

So let us welcome 2008 with a new sense of optimism.

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