Jakarta – A report from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) says it is unlikely that terror network Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) is plotting another major terrorist attack on par with the Bali bombings in 2002 and 2005.
The crisis group said in its latest report, titled, Jamaah Islamiyah's Current Status, that the terrorist organization was in a consolidation period, a stage that barred it from carrying out large-scale operations that would jeopardize its support base.
"There is no indication that they are plotting 'Bali three' or any attack aimed at causing widespread deaths of foreign civilians," said the report, which was made available to The Jakarta Post on Friday.
While in this consolidation period, the report asserts, JI has changed tactics from carrying out large-scale operations to focusing on assassinating senior police, prosecutors and others in positions of authority in its base of Indonesia.
It also disclosed that the bombings carried out by JI "renegade" Noordin Muhammad Top against hotels, restaurants and the Australian Embassy in Jakarta between 2003 and 2005 had hurt the network more so than aid its cause, as many victims were Muslims.
Future operations for JI will likely be devoted to recruitment and expanding its support base. Currently, according to ICG estimates, the terror network has more than 900 members nationwide, far less than 1999 estimates.
The selection of low-profile targets is also connected with JI's current financial condition, the report said.
"Noordin's attempt to bomb the Australian embassy cost about US$8,000; JI's assassination of the head of the Central Sulawesi Protestant Church cost $25," Sidney Jones, ICG's Southeast Asia project director, said.
The report said, however, that these constraints have not dissuaded JI from its primary objective of establishing an Islamic state in Indonesia, and that a number of factors exist that determine the strength of JI in different areas of Indonesia.
"These factors are... the existence of JI-linked boarding schools; the history of the Darul Islam insurgency in the area; the extent of family and business ties among members; the success of campus-based recruitment and the degree to which recruiting takes place in prisons," the report said.
Program director for ICG Asia, Robert Templer, said that following the successful identification and detainment of JI members responsible for past acts of terror, the Indonesian government needs to focus on conditions inside the country's prisons.
"Now the Indonesian government needs to pay much more attention to prisons, including what goes on inside, visitors and the materials they bring in and pre- and post-release programs," Templer said.