Alvin Darlanika Soedarjo, Jakarta – A British volcanologist is disputing a government-sponsored conference's conclusion that the Sidoarjo mud disaster was caused by tectonic forces.
"It's unfortunate that the (Indonesian) government concludes the mud disaster in Sidoarjo is a natural phenomenon," Richard Davies, a mud volcano specialist and professor at England's Durham University, told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.
He said drilling activities by Lapindo Brantas Inc. were the likeliest cause of the massive outpouring of mud. "The chance that the mud erupted because of the drilling activities is 90 percent. I feel quite strongly about this."
Davies added that the chance of the mud volcano being triggered by an earlier earthquake in Yogyakarta was 1 to 2 percent, while the chance that both the drilling activities and the earthquake played a role was 8 percent.
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) chairman Said D. Jenie said Wednesday that global experts who met for a workshop in Jakarta concluded that the mud was caused by natural tectonic activity.
Some said the disaster, dubbed 'Lusi', an acronym for Lumpur Sidoarjo (Sidoarjo mud), would have occurred eventually with or without the company's drilling activities.
Critics have said the conference invited only scientists who believed the mud geyser was triggered by a natural phenomenon, such as the May 27, 2006 earthquake, which happened two days before the mud eruption.
Davies was not invited as a speaker but attended part of the BPPT conference.
He said any efforts to stop or curb the mudflow would be highly dangerous. He added that the system of mud walls built by the national mudflow response team to control the sludge also posed a threat.
"People should just leave the (mud volcano) alone. The embankment is dangerous. If it collapses, it could create an intense hazard," Davies said.
"The latest plan to drop chains of concrete balls (inside the main geyser) to slow down the spewing mud is an interesting experiment. But again it's unlikely to work," he added.
National mudflow response team spokesman Rudy Novrianto said Thursday that the team was ready to drop the concrete balls inside the Banjar Panji I well on Friday, wind and weather permitting.
"The execution is not as easy as we had thought. We tested and found that dropping the balls and pulling the cable (back up) afterward was really hard."
The national team, which was established by presidential decree last September and has received funding from Lapindo, will complete its term on March 8.