A massive earthquake December 26 in the Java Trench off Sumatra spawned tsunamis that have killed tens of thousands in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India, the Maldives, Thailand and east Africa. The embattled Indonesian province of Aceh, home to a militant separatist movement, was hardest hit. How well the government in Jakarta is able to cope with the disaster will have significant implications for regional security.

Although devastating, the tsunami disaster is not likely to have a catastrophic impact on economies in the region. This is mainly because the areas affected, for the most part, were not industrial centers but poor fishing villages and small coastal towns, places of limited economic value.

Thailand's economy, for one, will not suffer long-term adverse affects. The tourism industry, which makes up 6 percent of the country's gross domestic product, stands to lose a quarter of its projected revenue for 2005, but that is a worst-case scenario. Most of Thailand's tourist facilities were not severely damaged and are expected to be operational again soon.

Overall, tourism industry experts expect the tsunami disaster to have less of an impact on Thailand's tourism industry than the severe acute respiratory syndrome scare in 2003.

The real impact of the tsunami disaster will be felt in Indonesia, where the remote province of Aceh – on the northern tip of Sumatra – has been devastated. If conditions in Aceh are allowed to deteriorate – and if Jakarta cannot deal with the crisis – resulting instability in the province could give militant separatists the opportunity to expand their operations in the region. This is something that neither Indonesia nor Australia wants to see.

Jakarta is still smarting over Canberra's role in ripping East Timor away from Indonesia in 1999, but relations have been improving since President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's election in October 2004. Although Indonesia does not want to see Australian troops on its territory, logistical support during the current emergency in Aceh is critical and most welcome. Four Royal Australian Air Force C-130 cargo aircraft, carrying water purification equipment and other vital supplies, were among the first to arrive in Sumatra.

Canberra also is providing assistance in the form of relief supplies and money directly to the Indonesian Red Cross.

Already providing more aid to Indonesia than any other country in the region (AU$160 million [$123 million] for 2004-2005), Australia is demonstrating the same largesse in response to the tsunami disaster. Its goal: To ensure its own security by helping Jakarta maintain order in Aceh and throughout the archipelago.

The tsunami disaster could prove to be a boon to Jakarta in its campaign against militant separatists in Aceh. Yudhoyono will send more troops into the province to rebuild and clean up, but the lack of adequate sea- and airlift capability, combined with damaged infrastructure that was inadequate to begin with, will hinder efforts to bring supplies and personnel into the area. The Indonesian military has declared a cease-fire with the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) while it concentrates on recovery operations. Yudhoyono already has expressed a desire to have truce talks with GAM and may use the cease-fire as an opportunity to initiate a dialogue.

If GAM does not agree to settle the problem peacefully, Yudhoyono will have more troops on hand to clean them out.

Unless Yudhoyono offers more autonomy to Aceh, GAM is unlikely to lay down its arms. Yudhoyono is unwilling give the separatists more control of Aceh, since that would set a dangerous precedent for other restive regions in the archipelago.

Indonesia's recovery from the tsunami disaster will be a lengthy one – and it may push Indonesia closer to the West. If Jakarta cannot adequately provide for the victims in Aceh, Yudhoyono's government will come under fire from opponents at home, which could lead to political instability and civil unrest. To prevent this, Yudhoyono will look to the United States, as well as Australia, for help, since Indonesia lacks the resources to cope with a disaster of this scale. It would be in the best interests of Washington and Canberra to take preventive action in Aceh now by helping Jakarta maintain control of the situation.

Otherwise, a natural disaster and separatist movement could combine to create a level of chaos in Aceh that Washington and Canberra will have to respond to with force.