Salim Osman – The campaign strategy for presidential front runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is simple: ride on popularity.
His advisers believe that in a direct presidential election, man is more important than machinery – which his close rivals Megawati Sukarnoputri and Wiranto can boast of.
Hence, his advisers are out to project him and his ability to lead. Mr Bambang's camp was the first one to come out with a vision statement – encapsulated in a blue book – that detailed his plans to improve Indonesia. His media cell too seems to be more active, encouraging journalists to convey his message.
But critics say his popularity is confined to the major urban centres and the middle class, so he needs to broaden his appeal to the grassroots in the rural areas.
The University of Indonesia's Arbi Sanit said: "He needs to do more to win the rural folk who may not know him. He should have a strategy to whip up the emotions of the people in the remote areas like what Ms Megawati is doing."
Mr Bambang's aides say this is exactly what he is doing now as he and his running mate Jusuf Kalla tour the sprawling archipelago. Surveys indicate that Mr Bambang's popularity has soared in the past three months.
The latest survey by the United States-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems shows that support for the 54-year-old retired general has soared to 41 per cent. President Megawati is far behind with 11 per cent. Retired general Wiranto secured just 10 per cent. Indonesian polling firms have similar findings.
The Lembaga Studi Institut (LSI) found that 40 per cent of those surveyed now prefer Mr Bambang, following the success of his small Democrat Party in the parliamentary elections.
The LSI poll also revealed that he is the top choice of the 40 million supporters of the much-courted Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) – with his support far exceeding NU chairman Hasyim Muzadi's and spiritual elder Abdurrahman Wahid's. The poll was done before Mr Abdurrahman was barred from the contest on medical grounds.
The Bambang camp feels there is no need to rely on party machinery given the strong appeal of the retired general. Indeed, Mr Bambang is the only candidate not to have struck a deal with any political party or group for the July 5 election.
His advisers believe it is better to forge a coalition much later, perhaps in the face-off in September if there is no clear majority in the presidential polls.
A senior aide disclosed: "We don't need others hanging on our coattails. Some of us think we can clinch the race in the first round. If not, we will think of linking up with Golkar and the PKB if Wiranto does not get through."
Political analyst Indria Samego said: "He will be a factor in the election because of his popularity. His name is his capital. That's why a relatively unknown political entity like the Democrat Party could emerge fourth in the legislative elections."