Washington – Indonesia is about to find itself under mounting US scrutiny as the Bush administration presses home its campaign to rout out terror havens, and analysts say the attention could prompt hard choices in Jakarta.
Officials and observers note a growing awareness that Southeast Asia, with widespread and often institutionalised corruption, thriving crime, and often weak central governments is an ideal breeding ground for terrorism.
And Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, ravaged by sectarian and ethnic conflicts represents an ideal potential haven for al-Qaeda fugitives or other terror cells.
There is a growing sense among many in the US foreign policy community that President Megawati Sukarnoputri has done too little to hunt down terror suspects, after promising to help the US campaign during a White House visit days after September 11.
"The only place Indonesians are not being arrested for terrorism is Indonesia," charged Dana Dillon, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank with close ties to the Bush administration.
Indonesia is being held up as an unflattering comparison to the Philippines, which signed up US special forces advisors in its battle with Abu Sayyaf guerrillas who have supposed links to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda.
No one here argues that a common approach to the two countries would work – but Indonesia epitomises a crucial question for the administration – how to solicit an anti-terror purge in a country not naturally predisposed to Washington.
Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy US Defense Secretary gave part of the answer in an interview in the New York Times Friday. He said that fearing a backlash, Washington would not seek to send troops to Indonesia, but would work more closely with law enforcement agencies there.
There is concern here that Megawati may be unwilling to anger radical Islamic groups, or may be delaying action in deference to sectors of Indonesia's politically powerful army.
Sources say that Pentagon officials have for months been seeking ways to dilute a congressional embargo slapped on military ties with Jakarta, after its army was implicated in the militia rampage in East Timor in 1999. But given the sensitivities in Jakarta, and the power of the human rights lobby in Congress they are moving carefully.
"If we want their cooperation, and their cooperation is essential to our success, we can't look like we are interfering in their internal affairs," Wolfowitz, a former US ambassador to Jakarta told the Times.
Concern apparently also extends to senior leaders throughout Southeast Asia. "They are worried that Megawati is not going to deal with the internal consequences of the al Qaeda operation as forcefully as she should," said Richard Solomon, of the US Institute for Peace, who recently met several senior Southeast Asian officials.
John Gershman, an analyst with the liberal Foreign Policy in Focus think-tank goes further, saying there is "intense dissatisfaction" within the administration at Indonesia's performance. And a senior administration official quoted in the Times Friday admitted : "Indonesia is infinite shades of gray right now, and you need a more nuanced approach."
That approach has spared Indonesia the kind of diplomatic pressure imposed on Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, who was given a clear choice by the Bush administration at the start of the anti-terror war – "either you are with us or against us."
Indonesia has come under pressure from within and outside the region to take action against alleged terrorist leaders. Singapore named Indonesian Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, who runs a Muslim boarding school in Central Java, as a leader of the Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist group.
Thirteen alleged Jemaah Islamiyah operatives were detained in Singapore last year for allegedly plotting to blow up US targets there. Singapore says some of them have identified Ba'asyir as a leader.
Ba'asyir has denied any links to international terror but has described Osama bin Laden, alleged mastermind of the September 11 attacks, as "a true Muslim fighter".
Singapore has also identified Riduan Hishamuddin, also known as Hambali, as linked to international terror and the planned attacks in the island republic.