Vaudine England, Jayapura – Tension is rising in the province of Irian Jaya, with almost daily incidents of protest, killing or intimidation occurring across the vast land mass.

A combination of indicators – ranging from a sudden lack of public transport to outright riots – suggest serious instability is threatening Indonesia's eastern-most province and last frontier.

"We have now a very high potential for conflict," says John Rumbiak, of the human rights advocacy group, Elsham. "And mentally, Jakarta is so far away, so distanced from the situation here now, it's crazy. It seems the Government doesn't understand and doesn't care."

The obvious cause for concern is the insistent aspiration of most Papuans – the original residents of Irian Jaya – for independence. At a congress in June, thousands trekked for days to express their wish for independence from Indonesia, which claimed sovereignty in 1963 when the former Dutch administration withdrew.

Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid is believed by many in Irian Jaya to be personally sympathetic to demands for talks and even a gradual transition towards greater local autonomy. But Mr Wahid is stymied by his inability to control the armed forces and by the strongly held Indonesian belief in the unity of their nation forged from the Dutch colonial empire.

But aside from the independence movement, which remains avowedly peaceful, a series of recent incidents suggest other forces are also at work, leaving analysts to ponder the usual dilemma of attributing such events to mere incompetence or to conspiracy.

On July 8, a mob destroyed the main market of Sentani, the airport town near Jayapura and the ramifications from that incident continue. The drama began during a drunken brawl at a local brothel on the shores of Lake Sentani. A Papuan was killed, apparently by migrants from Sulawesi.

A mob then destroyed the market – run largely by Bugis migrants from South Sulawesi who, unlike most Papuans, are Muslim. Interestingly, the adjacent mosque was not touched.

Depending on who one talks to, this is because Papuans chose to stop their destructive rampage at that point, or because the riot was provoked by the Bugis in the first place – who themselves chose to save their mosque.

Police arrested four Papuans, allegedly without investigation, and severely beat one suspect, throwing him into a truck and then shooting him in the leg. He remains handcuffed to a bed in Jayapura's main hospital. Meanwhile, local residents note that Bugis traders had emptied their stalls the day before the attack, suggesting they had been warned of trouble in advance.

That was just one incident. Reports continue to come in daily of new problems. Despite the verbal assurances from Mr Wahid that Papuans may raise their "Morning Star" independence flag in public, local police continue to get in the way – beating those who try, shooting in the air, or simply sawing off the metal flag poles, as happened last week on the outskirts of Jayapura.

Jakarta's inaction has led hundreds of displaced non-Papuans to seek shelter near Jayapura. The refugees, who had agreed to be part of the Government's transmigration programme, now say they just want to go home. At the same time, thousands of distraught refugees are arriving from the devastated Maluku Islands, adding to the danger of an already fractious mix.

As in many parts of Indonesia, it is the voluntary migration of some ethnic groups, such as the assertive traders from South Sulawesi, which has skewed local commerce and administration. But some of these people fear the consequences of a looming independence struggle and are packing up and leaving.

"This combination of social problems builds demands for independence among Papuans," said Mr Rumbiak. "And security personnel don't do anything except seemingly encourage the troubles. Wahid is in a state of political deadlock, the political process with the Papuans has reached its own traffic jam. And there are people here managing the conflict in ways which will only make things worse," he said.

Armed militia already exist, both for and against independence, and many ordinary Papuans aspiring to freedom are swept into militaristic groups before they realise, say rights activists. "After being repressed for so long, people are now letting it all out, supposedly in the name of the [independence] struggle. It's a very dangerous time," said Mr Rumbiak.