A July 12 meeting between Indonesia's top four political leaders was indefinitely postponed at the very last minute. The meeting was to have brought together the president, vice president and speakers of the upper and lower houses of parliament, each from a different political faction, to prepare for the August People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) session.
The elites who have held together the government of President Abdurrahman Wahid are increasingly divided. These divisions, now extending down into the country's political parties, stand in sharp contrast to the president's personal style of promoting unity within the nation's elite. As the country's legislative assembly is set to meet, Indonesia – a chokepoint between oceans as well as a major oil producer – once more faces a breakdown in stability, which can spill into the streets.
The meeting was to have brought together Wahid, Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, assembly speaker Amien Rais, and house speaker Akbar Tandjung. These four figures fill the country's top political posts and lead Indonesia's four key political factions.
An important tide has now turned within Indonesia's elite. Throughout his presidency, Wahid has promoted a policy of bringing together the leaders of Indonesian society. The president has sought to bring the leaders of all key factions into his government. There has been a practical design: leaving little chance for a charismatic leader to raise an opposition party that can threaten the regime.
While there has been some infighting between government leaders, Wahid's policy has been largely successful. Each political leader has a vested interest in maintaining the current government structure or risks having his or her faction alienated – or worse, risks bringing chaos to a fragile Indonesia.
The government is now splitting along factional lines at a crucial time. The beginning of the National Assembly session, scheduled for next month, is fast approaching. The assembly will address both constitutional change and Wahid's first year in office.
Coupled with this is a re-emergence of the military as a political player, despite previous plans to limit its role in government. In recent months, the military has suggested that civilian politicians are unready to control the country without military help. And top military leaders have pressed for continued political power as well as increased budgets.
These splits now resemble the shape of Indonesia during a dangerous time: the waning years of former President Suharto's rule, which ended in near chaos in May 1998. The bureaucratic government, moderates, and the military all faced off against opposition forces that, in turn, took their message to the streets.
Today, the opposition bloc is led by Amien Rais and Megawati Sukarnoputri. Together, their factions hold more than 50 percent of the seats in parliament and can present a formidable challenge to Wahid. A rival of the aging president, Rais is backed by the fundamentalist Muhammadiyah, the country's second largest Islamic organization.
Important shifts are shaking this party and others behind Rais. Muhammadiyah recently announced that it would move away from the concept of Pancasila – a set of national principles that calls for national unity without regard to religion. Rais, also a leader of a loose alliance of Muslim parties known as the Central Axis, has tacitly supported the Laskar Jihad, an Islamic militia operating in Indonesia's troubled Maluku province.
Vice President Megawati leads the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDI-P), which garnered the majority of votes in the June 1999 general election. The PDI-P was the voice of opposition to former President Suharto, splitting from the officially recognized opposition Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI). Megawati based her campaign in the 1999 elections on a self-proclaimed popular mandate, relying on her populist image to rally supporters.
Now, Megawati is emphasizing her ties to Islam. Recently, she told a Muhammadiyah meeting that her father, former President Sukarno, had but one dying wish: to be buried wrapped in the group's flag. She also praised the organization for its commitment and important role in the independence struggle in Indonesia, according to the Straits Times.
With Megawati and Rais forming an alliance in advance of the MPR session, Wahid will face an increasingly difficult situation. Not only do they hold the majority of seats in parliament, but they are also both known for appealing to the masses – capable of raising large groups of supporters in protest.
Wahid, former head of Indonesia's largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), and a founder of the National Awakening Party (PKB), represents Indonesia's moderate Muslim population. Wahid supports a secular government for the Islamic state of Indonesia. Also aligned with Wahid is the speaker of the house, Tandjung, a remnant of the old Golkar regime. Since the elections, he has worked to change the image of Golkar and has often been relegated to the role of middleman, shuttling between factions.
Likely to side with Wahid and Tandjung is Indonesia's military, which has recently begun reasserting its role in national politics. While not always in tune with Wahid's reforms and his style of governing, the military has little desire to see the political opposition using Islam against the secular regime.
Two years after an economic crisis swept the region, Indonesia's economic recovery is hampered by fears of social instability and political unrest. With parties splitting along factional lines, Wahid's policy of maintaining unity within the elite is slipping.
The rift within the government will be first tested July 20. Wahid is scheduled to go before parliament to justify his decisions to replace several Cabinet members. In the run-up to the assembly session, Wahid will appeal to Megawati and Rais to remain on board and not undermine his government.
If they fail to heed his call, they threaten to break the tenuous dam holding back the floodwaters of instability. The president, backed by the old Golkar factions and the military, may find himself forced into a position where he must order troops to confront protests – or face losing control of the government.