David Jenkins – Defence Minister General Wiranto, once portrayed as a possible kingmaker in Indonesian politics, appears to be an increasingly isolated figure, a man who may soon be out of a job and defending himself against charges that he oversaw his army's carefully laid plans to turn East Timor into a wasteland after the August 30 referendum.
General Wiranto won qualified praise yesterday for his decision not to stand as a vice-presidential candidate, a move that is expected to take some of the heat out of the anti-government and anti-army demonstrations that have paralysed parts of central Jakarta for the past week. But if the popular opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri becomes president when the People's Consultative Assembly votes in Jakarta today, many analysts believe Wiranto's days will be numbered. Megawati is believed to have drawn up a list of senior generals, most of them reform-minded, from which she will select a new defence minister and a new military chief (Pangab). Wiranto, who currently holds both posts, would then make a "graceful", but not necessarily immediate, exit from the army leadership, according to some Indonesian sources.
Senior members of the Indonesian high command, including the head of military intelligence, Lieutenant-General Tyasno Sudarto, urged Wiranto not to stand as vice-president, well-placed sources in Jakarta said yesterday. Although President B.J. Habibie indicated recently that he wanted Wiranto as his vice-presidential running mate, the idea always had an odd ring to it.
Wiranto was not only widely disliked by students. He was widely disliked in Muslim circles as a result of army atrocities in the staunchly Muslim province of Aceh.
Many Indonesians and many foreigners found it hard to believe that a man who might find himself called to give evidence before an international tribunal investigating crimes against humanity in East Timor could find himself representing his country abroad.
Another problem was that Wiranto would have been obliged to resign from the army before standing for political office. With tensions running high in the streets and more than 40,000 troops and police on duty in Jakarta, this is hardly the time for the nation to be replacing the most powerful figure in the military establishment. Some analysts are not at all sure that Wiranto will be dumped, even if Megawati becomes president. "I think he is still in control of the military," said Dr Salim Said, who has close links to a number of senior army officers. "I think his staff would like to keep him there because they do not want to see the intrusion of the civilians into the military.
"The military don't want to see the changing of the leadership of the military coinciding with the changing of the political leadership because that would mean a return to the situation under [former president] Soeharto, in which the military leader was only the assistant of Soeharto. Wiranto still has another three years as Pangab." According to one Indonesian analyst, Wiranto's decision not to stand as a vice-presidential candidate has "helped calm down the situation". The analyst added: "The students appreciate that very much. Tensions will still be high on the streets today but the situation will become a bit calmer."
Students, who have been involved in a series of violent demonstrations in the run-up to the presidential elections, have been outspoken critics of Wiranto, whom they blame for the death of more than a dozen students in the past 17 months. Wiranto, who has been widely seen as an important if often indecisive political player in the past 18 months, could be replaced as military chief by one of several senior officers if Megawati becomes president.
One of those mentioned as a possible Pangab is Lieutenant-General Bambang Yudhoyono, who is the head of the TNI's territorial structure, the body that supervises the army's political role. He is able and articulate but is seen by some as a man who became too close to Dr Habibie to have much chance of being promoted to the highest military office by Megawati.
"I think Bambang is more accepted by civilians than Wiranto," said Dr Chusnul Mar'iyah, lecturer in political science at the University of Indonesia. "Wiranto is not someone you can discuss things with. Bambang always goes to seminars. He can talk, he can argue, he can discuss." Another officer whose star could be expected to rise if Megawati becomes president is Lieutenant-General Agum Gumelar, a red beret officer who is head of the National Resilience Institute. He has been spoken of as a possible defence minister, although that job could go to a civilian.
Another with aspirations for high office under Megawati is Lieutenant-General Hendropriyono, who has served as Minister of Transmigration in the Habibie Cabinet. He would be a controversial choice for any position. Hendropriyono was the commander in South Sumatra in the 1980s when troops stormed a village, reportedly killing more than 100 innocent men, women and children. The names of two other reform-minded generals – Lieutenant General Agus Widjojo and Major General Agus Wirahadikusuma – have also been mentioned in connection with key army postings after a possible spring clean by Megawati. Meanwhile, there are indications that senior Indonesian army officers associated with the violence in East Timor are increasingly concerned about the possibility of war crimes investigations. According to several sources in Jakarta, some of those officers have closely followed the moves to extradite Augusto Pinochet to Spain and have begun to give serious thought to travel abroad.