Once, Indonesia's President Suharto was considered a demigod by his people; a leader whose power over his country of more than 17,000 islands extended into a near-magical realm.

But even magic, these days, cannot slow he forces of change when they are set of by the frustrations of close to 200 million people.

Now, same 30 years after he forcibly took control from his predecessor Sukarno, Pak (father) 'Harto is finding it increasingly difficult to soothe and smooth over the wrinkles of trouble within his country. Never mind the 300-plus recognized ethnic groups and more than 500 dialects within the Indonesian archipelago, nor the 2,100 kilometers of ocean that stretch between them from east to west. Today's is sues within the world's fourth most populous nation involve government and human rights, as well as the futures of the very youth whose toes are up against the current country's intangible battle lines.

The downfall began in April with the death of Suharto's wife, Tien, his companion and confidante for close to half a century. Beneath the country's surface, questions of confidence broiled like molten lava while human rights issues, such as Timor and Irian Jaya, heated the tension. Then came the Nike expose: factory workers being overused and underpaid. Suddenly, the capital of Jakarta was up in arms, stoning the U.S. embassy and rioting outside the headquarters of the Indonesian Democratic Party in June.

Incidentally, the Parti Demokrasi Indonesia (PDI) leader at the time was Megawait Sukarnoputri - the daughter of former Indonesian president Sukarno himself. But Suharto, who, as the country's military leader, aggressively took over the presidency from Sukarno in 1966, denounced her Democratic Party as a reincarnation of the Indonesian Communist Party that was banned after its 1965 coup attempt.

And so Megawati was ousted - also in June - from her position as head of the party. Thus, throughout July, the tension based in the capital spread. Hundreds of students gathered for rally outside of Gajah Mada University in Yogyakarta; five arrested. Protests surged in Surabaya, while churches were burned in the capital city. Demonstrations outside of the American embassy shut down the streets around Merdeka Square and kept non-participants huddled inside their homes.

And then, on July 27, strained threads of control snapped abruptly when two truckloads of security forces drove up to Megawati's PDI headquarters in the Jakarta suburb of Menteng. Their mission: to break up a sit-in demonstration of more than 100 supporters inside. First they hurled stones, then petrol bombs, then, finally, they stormed the building. Rumors that mass murders had been committed inside flew in whispers that seemed to hover above a street crowd of more than 5000 people. Those who emerged from the building staggered out broken and blinded from the effects out broken and blinded from the effects of tear gas, rattan canes and water cannons.

Since this terrifying event, a smooth and quick crackdown on public political actions has taken place by the government. Streets are quiet, guards outside the main political buildings seemingly bored - but always watchful beneath their relaxed stances. The country's leaders, however, are more visibly disturbed, particularly about the disappearance of foreign investors. Beneath the current claim, a sense of anger still broils, although the current regime seems reluctant to acknowledge this rage. Rather, they are poised solely for resistance - at least for the time being, Suharto himself addressed the issue recently in a speech to parliament, requesting that the country respect the national consensus rather than give in to the pro-democracy forces. "Let us not tinker with (the system) just for the sake of fulfilling the ambition of individuals, he said.

Between Suharto's health issues and the general political turmoil, though, U.S. businesses in Indonesia are concerned about the recent signs of upheaval. As one of the West Coast's strongest trading partners, these recent events are turning droplets of news into ripples of hesitancy throughout the region.

Could these events, taking place on an archipelago so seemingly distant, really influence economic and social actions in the Pacific Northwest?

Daniel Lev, a professor of Political Science at the University of Washington and an expert on Indonesian issues, offers his comments. "The country has a strong economy, and trade is strong down the whole West Coast," he says. He adds that many businesses in the U.S. tend to see problems in Indonesia as "distant", such as the labor issues with Nike, and that for the most part trade between the U.S. and Indonesia should not be affected.

However, a Seattle business owner whose major trade takes place with the country disagrees. Requesting anonymity, he remarked, "I think the events happening in Indonesia might affect the economy here. Someone would have to think twice before putting money into the country right new. I certainly couldn't urge any of my clients to (invest) there. As for Indonesia's future, my advice is: Be prepared." Youth also observe - and worry

Maroth Poeante, president of the Indonesian Student Association at the University of Washington, also brings up the fact that the country' s recent events are causing personal concerns among Seattle's Indonesian student community.

I think that [most] of the Indonesian students abroad follow the news carefully," he says. "If bad things are happening there, there can certainly be (repercussions) for us here." Whether these repercussions could occur in the attitudes or actions of those around them, Poeante explains, the Indonesian student population takes care no to set off any tension.

There is a strong Indonesian student population in the Greater Seattle are, including approximately 70 students at the UW, about 100 at Shoreline Community College and close to that number at Seattle University.

Despite the recent troubles, Poeante believes that Suharto will maintain power. He compares the country's position to a situation in School: "It's just like your grade-point average," he says. "Let's say you are a good student and you have so many credits with a 3.9 GPA and then in the summer you get a 3.3 for a course. Your overall average will drop maybe to a 3.86; not that much, because you've built up such a good average in the majority of your classes. And people think Suharto is like that; he knows so many politicians and people in the military that he has built up his points. The riots won't do anything [to hurt his chances of success]...although in 1997 [when the next election occurs], then maybe something will happen."

He also points out, "Suharto is the only leader we have known for the last 30 years. We can't afford to experiment with another one - if we don't choose him, then who do we want?" He explains that he is currently reading A Nation in Waiting by Adam Schwartz. "And that' s what we are, a 'nation in waiting," he says. "Waiting for something to happen."

But it is youth like Poeante - educated and active in politics - who will not wait any longer to force changes on a system that, after only 51 years on Aug. 17, is still too old for them. One problem: the country is not taken seriously by Western governments, the U.S. in particular, "I listen to the BBC New York Times and the Wall Street Journal," says Poeante. "[Indonesia is] waiting for an American reaction to what's going on in the country. But I just don't see it. I don' t see any reaction.

Observes Daniel Lev, "There are many [people] who don't understand Indonesia simply because they don't know that much about it. However, there is a whole subset of people who have studied this region and they do know exactly what is going on."

Lev adds that the media of recent years have concentrated on China because of its Communist control. "Since 1965 [when the Communist coup attempt on the Indonesian government occurred], the newspapers have not paid much attention to Indonesia." he remarks. "The destruction of the Communist party made [the need for news coverage] much less critical."

However, after the elections of 1997, there will be more than a ripple of an effect throughout the globe from the world's fourth most populous nation. A major supplier of oil, gemstones and timber, Indonesia is one giant that America must face with compassion and full comprehension.

But the country is a giant about which these Indonesian students can help the U.S. gain insight. While American remains a step back, whether from intimidation or ignorance, Indonesia continues to grow into a force the West cannot ignore.

[Kelinci Kecil, Will Indonesia's turmoil have local economic ramifications., International Examiner, 10-15-1996, pp PG.]