Heru Andriyanto, Jakarta – The chief statistician has defended the credibility of the country's 5.61% year-on-year economic growth figure for the first quarter of 2026, responding to criticism from economists who questioned whether the data accurately reflected broader economic conditions.
Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), said the first-quarter growth data were based on comprehensive nationwide calculations and extensive indicators collected across Indonesia.
Several prominent analysts had described the growth figure as "too good to be true," pointing to pressure on the rupiah, mounting fiscal burdens from subsidies, and global uncertainty stemming from Middle East tensions during the January-March period.
The Indonesian Economists Alliance conducted its own assessment and estimated that a "more rational" growth range for the first quarter would have been between 4.4% and 5.2%.
However, Amalia said two major factors drove economic expansion during the quarter: stronger household consumption during Ramadan and Idul Fitri, and an unusually large increase in government spending early in the year.
"Government expenditure in the first quarter is usually limited, but in Q1 2026, there were various government stimulus policies that made spending much larger," Amalia said during an exclusive discussion forum organized by B-Universe Media Holdings in Jakarta on May 26.
Government spending in the first quarter rose nearly 22% year-on-year, partly because of a low-base effect. In previous years, government expenditure was typically concentrated toward the fourth quarter of the fiscal year.
Amalia said the rise in household spending during Ramadan and Idul Fitri also played a major role, noting that private consumption accounts for more than half of Indonesia's economic growth.
"Of the 5.61% economic growth recorded in the first quarter, household consumption contributed 2.94 percentage points," she said.
Consumer spending on transportation and accommodation also increased significantly during the quarter.
Amalia said BPS collaborated with Indonesia's three largest mobile network operators to monitor public mobility patterns and distinguish between daily commuting activity and longer-distance travel.
Investment remained the second-largest contributor to economic growth, accounting for 28.29% of the economy in the first quarter. The agency recorded a 7.2% year-on-year increase in combined foreign and domestic investment during the period.
On the production side, the agency also found that industrial output expanded 5%, supported in part by agriculture and trade-related sectors.
A major harvest season in February lifted food crop production by more than 7%, while meat and egg production also increased because of stronger Ramadan demand, Amalia said.
"BPS is the country's official statistical agency with nationwide coverage. We have offices in 514 regencies and cities, and in all 34 provinces across Indonesia," she said.
"When we measure gross domestic product, the calculations are conducted simultaneously at the regency level, then at the provincial level, and finally consolidated by the central BPS office using the same timeline and methodology. We cannot calculate GDP using only 10 to 20 indicators. We use 2,719 indicators to measure expenditure-side GDP and 841 indicators to measure production-side GDP across Indonesia," Amalia said.
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/statistics-chief-defends-strong-q1-growth-data-amid-skepticis