Natasha Khairunisa, Jakarta – The Indonesian Economists Alliance, or AEI, has questioned the validity of Indonesia's reported 5.61% year-on-year economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, arguing that the figure released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) contains internal inconsistencies that warrant further review.
The economist group said its own research identified discrepancies within the official data, raising concerns over the integrity of the growth measurement.
As one example, AEI highlighted that the electricity sector recorded a contraction of 0.99% while the manufacturing sector reportedly expanded 5.04%, a combination the group said raises fundamental questions about the consistency of the data.
"If those inconsistencies are corrected, a more reasonable growth estimate would likely range between 4.4% and 5.2%. At the same time, Indonesia's economy is facing layered pressures," the group said in findings presented during a public discussion at Paramadina University in Jakarta on Saturday.
AEI said the economy is currently under pressure from a weakening rupiah, narrowing fiscal space, the impact of Middle East tensions on global oil prices, and the implications of the Indonesia-U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed on Feb. 19.
"In an era filled with uncertainty like today, investors need certainty – including certainty about the accuracy of government data. Without it, trust disappears, and economic crises often emerge because of the loss of trust," AEI economist Wijayanto Samirin said.
Another AEI economist, Teuku Riefky, said the inconsistencies should not be treated merely as technical issues.
"The reported 5.61% economic growth in Q1-2026 needs to be viewed cautiously. Aside from the internal inconsistencies in the BPS data, current economic conditions do not reflect an improvement in Indonesia's economic fundamentals," Riefky said.
"The continuing decline of the middle class, weakening purchasing power, and stagnant sectoral productivity remain unresolved structural problems. Misinterpreting GDP figures risks producing misguided policies and delaying urgently needed reforms," he added.
Another economist, Vid Adrison, warned that the relatively high government spending recorded in the first quarter should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of healthy fiscal conditions.
"What should be watched closely are the pressures in Q2 through Q4 of 2026. Narrowing fiscal policy space, declining transfers to regional governments, and allocations toward populist programs lacking productivity foundations are a dangerous combination for our fiscal sustainability," Vid said.
AEI economist Dwiwulan also argued that the rupiah's weakening reflected deeper structural problems beyond normal currency volatility.
"The rupiah's depreciation is not merely a technical issue. It reflects a financing structure overly dependent on foreign portfolio flows and capital markets that lack confidence in the direction of government policy," Dwiwulan said.
She added that some Bank Indonesia policies, including burden-sharing measures, had eroded investor confidence and functioned only as "paracetamol" in easing currency pressure.
"Full recovery depends on government policies that are realistic, disciplined, and transparent," she said.
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesian-economists-question-validity-of-reported-561-q1-growt