Ilona Estherina – The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) has formally requested that the United Nations (UN) Statistics Division audit Indonesia's second-quarter 2025 economic growth data, which was reported by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Celios believes that there are discrepancies between the official 5.12 percent growth figure and the country's actual economic conditions.
Celios conveyed its request to the UN statistical bodies, the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the UN Statistical Commission, through a formal letter of inquiry. According to Celios Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira, the organization's objective is to uphold the credibility of BPS data, which is widely used for research by academic institutions, financial analysts, businesses of all sizes, and the public.
"The letter sent to the UN contains a request to review the 5.12 percent year-on-year economic growth data for the second quarter of 2025," Bhima confirmed in an official statement.
Bhima explained that Celios had attempted to review all the indicators provided by BPS, focusing on the manufacturing industry. BPS reported a 5.68 percent growth in the manufacturing sector during the second quarter of 2025. However, Celios noted a contraction in manufacturing activity during the same period, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
Furthermore, the manufacturing sector's share of the gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 18.67 percent, down from 19.25 percent in the previous quarter. Bhima stated that this trend suggests a continued premature deindustrialization, citing increasing mass layoffs and the impact of rising costs on labor-intensive industries.
He questioned the official figures, saying, "So, on what basis can the manufacturing industry grow by 5.68 percent year-on-year? Transparent answers are needed for conflicting data."
Celios Policy Director Media Wahyudi Askar added that any institutional pressure or intervention in data preparation by BPS would violate the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, which have been adopted by the UN Statistical Commission. He emphasized that BPS data affects not only Indonesia's international credibility but also the welfare of its citizens.
"Inaccurate economic data, especially if growth is exaggerated, can mislead policy-making. Just imagine, with inaccurate data, the government could wrongly delay stimulus packages, subsidies, or social protection measures because it assumes the economy is doing well," Askar explained.
Celios hopes that the UN Statistics Division will promptly investigate Indonesia's GDP calculation methods for the second quarter of 2025. The research institution also seeks support from the UNSD and the UN Statistical Commission to establish a peer-review mechanism involving independent experts and to advocate for transparency within BPS.
Previously, BPS reported that Indonesia's economy grew by 5.12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, representing a 4.04 percent increase compared to the first quarter. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has publicly denied any allegations of data manipulation, stating on August 5, 2025, "There is no data manipulation."
Tempo attempted to seek confirmation on the economic growth data from BPS Head Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti and BPS Media and Communication Statistics Office Head Eko Rahmadian, but they did not respond prior to publication.