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Chaos in Indonesia's foreign policy?

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Jakarta Post - January 23, 2025

Trystanto Sanjaya, Rennes, France – The great Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin once said, "There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen." That quote rings pertinently in the rapid evolution of Indonesia's foreign policy today.

For nearly three months, President Prabowo Subianto has taken steps that have resulted in a monumental shift in Indonesia's foreign policy from the 10 years of president Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. He had Indonesia undo its traditional legal stance on the South China Sea by implicitly recognizing that Indonesia shares an "overlapping claim" with China over the maritime body. Indonesia's previous president frowned upon changing such a policy. Prabowo, it seems, has no hesitation.

Prabowo's sudden agreement to the phrase "overlapping claim" over the South China Sea should be viewed as a warning that President Prabowo's overtly personal engagement in foreign policy undertakings can cause future unpredictability in Indonesia's foreign policy trajectory.

Indeed, before his inauguration, some experts warned that Prabowo would assert himself more in Indonesia's foreign policy-making and undertaking because of his interest in foreign policy. Some signs of this foreign policy personalization were on display from day one, when Prabowo broke tradition by not appointing a career diplomat from the Foreign Ministry, choosing instead to appoint Sugiono, a loyalist from Prabowo's political party described as Prabowo's "ideological son".

Still, how Prabowo ignored the Foreign Ministry in the South China Sea episode will alarm many foreign policymakers of Indonesia's international partners. In a stroke of a pen, by agreeing to the existence of the phrase "overlapping claims" in the joint declaration between Indonesia and China, Indonesia seems to have recognized, implicitly or otherwise, that China has a legitimate claim to some of Indonesia's maritime claims near the Natuna Islands, even though the distance between the Natuna Islands and Hainan Island is more than 1,500 nautical miles away.

It is very difficult to see how the Foreign Ministry would agree to such a formulation. After all, under the leadership of former Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, the ministry had categorically refused to recognize China's claim over the South China Sea. The most rational explanation would be that Prabowo chose to ignore the Foreign Ministry entirely. This is partly confirmed by an investigation by Tempo that revealed Indonesian diplomats had tried to warn Prabowo of Indonesia's policy over the South China Sea. However, Prabowo chose to ignore the advice of the Foreign Ministry diplomats and agree with Xi Jinping on the phrasing, leaving the Foreign Ministry to pick up the mess.

The South China Sea episode should be considered a taste of what will come. The strong foreign policy bureaucracy can act as a "stabilizer" by ensuring continuity between one president and another. The civil servants who work there typically stay in office for decades, ensuring policies' continuous and harmonious implementation. Even though the minister and president can change such policies, the foreign policy bureaucracy typically acts by ensuring that the new policy changes do not contradict the basic principles, such as the nonrecognition of China's claim over the South China Sea, and streamlining the new policies to ensure their compatibility with the current one.

Instead of listening to the opinion of Indonesia's long-serving diplomats, Prabowo had decided to bypass the traditional foreign policy bureaucracy in the Foreign Ministry and rely on himself and his inner apparatchik at the Presidential Palace. Of course, there is nothing wrong with listening to Prabowo's own advisors. However, by taking Foreign Ministry bureaucrats out of the decision-making process, nearly no one can ensure the relative stability of Indonesia's foreign policy by ensuring the smooth implementation of any new foreign policy initiatives and their compatibility with the existing policies and principles.

The effect of such ignorance can be destabilizing. Prabowo would be free to implement whatever foreign policy initiatives he and his apparatchik come up with little to no input on how such policies can be harmonized with the existing ones. If the new initiative turns out to be contradictory or incompatible with the existing policies, the result could be foreign policy instability, as Indonesia's foreign policy can drastically change.

The impact of such instability can be fatal. Many of Prabowo's programs, such as economic downstreaming, free school meals and 8 percent economic growth, require constant long-term economic commitment from overseas, particularly in foreign investment and foreign debt. Such policy volatility will make it hard for Indonesia's diplomats and representatives overseas to convince their negotiating partners to make a long-term deal. Indonesia's credibility and hard-won trust in the eyes of its international partners could be damaged as they think the country's foreign policy could change as the president changes. In short, they are scared that Indonesia's next president could just change the deal they made today.

As President Prabowo takes Indonesia's foreign policy out of the hands of Foreign Ministry bureaucrats and into his own hands, there will be more "out-of-the-box ideas", using Minister Sugiono's words, since the views of Foreign Ministry bureaucrats to ensure policy stability and continuity are not considered. As we are still in the third month of Prabowo's five-year term, expect more surprises down the road.

[The writer is a graduate student in geopolitics and business at the Rennes School of Business in France and a contributing writer for the European Student Think Tank.]

Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2025/01/23/chaos-in-indonesias-foreign-policy.htm

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