Maria Monica Wihardja and Putu Sanjiwacika Wibisana – Indonesia's middle class can be a boon for democracy but a bane for the government. Its economic security and political participation are crucial to the country's prosperity.
All social strata seek better economic well-being, but unlike the economically vulnerable population which are more easily satisfied with generous social assistance and affordable cost of living, the middle class tends to demand high-quality public services, clean government, rule of law, and a functioning democracy. Indonesia's middle class can be vociferous in its criticism of the government, whether on the street or in the digital realm. In the words of prominent economist Dr Chatib Basri, they are the "professional complainers". Despite being a likely bane to the government, political participation of the middle class is indispensable to achieving Indonesia's dream of becoming a high-income country by 2045.
Based on the World Bank definition, Indonesia's middle class comprises people with per capita monthly consumption between IDR1.6 million (US$105) and IDR9.4 million in 2023. They are the economically secure Indonesians with little chance of falling into poverty or vulnerability. The middle class constitutes less than one-fifth of Indonesia's population but contributes to almost half of national consumption. Despite being the fastest-growing income group between 2002 and 2018 (in absolute terms), Indonesia's middle class has lost ground in the past five years. According to our calculation, the middle-class population peaked at 59.5 million in 2018 before gradually falling in subsequent years to 47.9 million in 2024 despite the increase in total population. Although the less economically secure population, comprising more than 80 per cent of the population, possesses heavier political weight, the middle class contributes vitally to Indonesia's democracy through active and informed political participation.
Our study of middle-class political participation confirms that the middle class can be a boon for democratic Indonesia but a bane for the government. We examined middle-class political participation using a national survey conducted by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) from 17-27 November 2023.
We first categorised respondents by per capita monthly consumption, following the World Bank practice of setting thresholds based on relative economic vulnerability. The poor constitute 10 per cent of the sample, followed by the vulnerable (26 per cent), aspiring middle class (AMC, 47 per cent), and middle class (MC, 16 per cent) (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Distribution of survey respondents by income class (%) – see original document
Note: PL=poverty line. We combine the middle-income and upper-income classes (>17 x PL) since Indonesia's upper-income class accounts for just 0.5 per cent of the population.
We observe three salient features of the middle class. First, the MC shows greater political interest and engagement compared to other income groups. About half of the MC is interested in politics and government issues, compared to around one-third among the other groups. About 20 per cent of the MC frequently discusses politics with others, in contrast to 13 per cent of the poor, 8 per cent of the vulnerable, and 14 per cent of the AMC. The MC's higher educational attainment – 24 per cent have a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to 5-7 per cent for the AMC and the vulnerable and only 2 per cent for the poor – presumably raises their expectations as well. Around 94 per cent of the MC has access to the Internet, higher than other lower-income groups. Hence, their presence, especially in the digital realm, leverages their political influence despite their relatively small numbers.
They are also found to be more proactive in voicing their aspiration and less fearful of criticising the government. A substantially higher share of the MC disagrees that to be a good citizen, they should just follow what the government says and not criticise the government (Figure 2). On why people do not speak out, 41 per cent of the MC rejects fear as a reason, compared to 19 per cent of the poor and 26 per cent of the vulnerable and the AMC. The MC shows a greater belief in the consequence of their participation in presidential elections; they are more likely than other groups to disagree with the view that whom they vote for president has no effect on their lives.
Figure 2. Courage to Criticise the Government and Political System Preference – see original document.
Source – ISEAS-LSI Survey, Wave 1, November 2023; Authors' calculations.
Second, when asked about the best political system for Indonesia, with the alternatives of "an authoritarian regime like the Soeharto or the New Order era", "a democratic system like the Reformasi era", "no difference", and "depending on the situation", the MC clearly had higher preference over democratic system (47 per cent) compared to the poor and the vulnerable (35 per cent) and the AMC (41 per cent) (Figure 2). The MC is a stauncher defender of democracy.
Third, the MC is found to be the group with the highest dissatisfaction for the current state of law enforcement, democracy, and President Joko Widodo's performance. We note that this survey was conducted in November 2023 following the controversial Constitutional Court decision in October 2023 involving Jokowi's brother-in-law, paving the way for Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to run for the vice-presidential candidacy. Only 26 per cent of the MC ranks law enforcement as good or very good, compared to 39 per cent of the poor, 37 per cent of the vulnerable, and 32 per cent of the AMC. Only 51 per cent of the MC is quite or very satisfied with Indonesia's democracy, compared to 63 per cent of the poor, 70 per cent of the vulnerable, and 61 per cent of the AMC. At the same time, the MC has the most favourable perception about changes in their household economic conditions in the last year, which shows that they harbour broader aspirations beyond economic well-being.
Tellingly, when asked to identify three national issues to address, a near majority (45 per cent) of the MC mark "corruption eradication" as the most urgent, after the expectedly top-cited "job creation" (Table 1). "Law enforcement" is accorded equal priority as "poverty eradication and income inequality" (29 per cent); both are ranked third.
Table 1: "Which top three issues should the country's leaders prioritise?" – see original document.
Share of Total Respondents (%)
Source – ISEAS-LSI Survey, Wave 1, November 2023; Authors' calculations.
Note: The highlighted cells indicated the top three most-cited issues.
The middle class can be a positive force of change and a boon for the nation, although its strident and viral political activism may be a bane to the ruling government as epitomised by recent battles. In March 2024, intense social media scrutiny by netizens of a lavish corrupt tax official's son who was caught brutally attacking an Indonesian youth in a viralised video prompted the minister of finance to investigate the wealth of all civil servants under her ministry. On 22 August, nationwide demonstrations against the House of Representatives' attempted overturn of the Constitutional Court's rulings related to regional elections were organised within 24 hours, including through social media. The mass protest succeeded in aborting the legislature's move, which was allegedly being orchestrated by President Jokowi who wanted to clear the path for his youngest son to run for governorship.
If the government fails to expand the middle class and ignores their democratic aspirations, Indonesia's dream to become a high-income economy by 2045 may remain a pie in the sky. As the 2024 World Bank's "Middle Income Trap: Making a Miracle" report notes, reaching high-income status is possible but not realistic, especially if its share of highly productive middle class shrinks over time. Moreover, reforms that the middle class is fighting for – high-quality public services, good governance, and a vibrant democracy – are key to ensuring a prosperous Indonesia.
[Maria Monica Wihardja is a Visiting Fellow and co-coordinator of the Media, Technology and Society Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, and also Adjunct Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore. Putu Sanjiwacika Wibisana is a consultant at the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Practice at The World Bank.]
Source: https://fulcrum.sg/the-indispensable-political-participation-of-indonesias-middle-class