Bill Birtles and Mitch Woolnough in Solo, Central Java – Less than a fortnight out from Indonesia's election, President Joko Widodo's son is proving to be the decisive factor driving some of the country's almost 200 million voters towards his joint ticket.
Thirty-six-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka is running for vice-president alongside 72-year-old veteran candidate Prabowo Subianto in a cross-generational campaign, which is outperforming rivals in the opinion polls.
With candidates crisscrossing the archipelago in the final weeks before the election, supporters of the frontrunner pair say they are happy for the outgoing president to influence the next administration through his heir.
They view the candidacy of Gibran as a guarantee his father will continue to have a say in the political direction of the country.
With the election campaign now running at full speed, the Prabowo-Gibran roadshow has become increasingly confident, recently rolling into the Central Java city of Semarang, which is traditionally a stronghold of a rival party, the PDI-P.
Taking the stage with an air of calm, Gibran, as he's widely known in Indonesia, worked the crowd of boisterous supporters.
"In the next few weeks we will see many opinion polls. If the results turn bad, we'll have to work hard," he told them. "If the results are good, we'll have to work even harder," he said to applause.
But Widodo's son is merely the supporting act at these joint rallies, with the man he hopes will be his new boss taking centre stage.
Prabowo Subianto – who is twice Gibran's age and has a long and controversial history in the military, business and politics – routinely delivers the main speeches, working up supporters with a mix of fire and humour.
That's despite many in the crowd at Semarang saying the younger running mate has influenced their choice.
"I support Prabowo because he's running with Gibran as his VP candidate," said Jaswadi, a farmer who travelled to the rally from more than 100 kilometres away.
Jaswadi, who only goes by one name, voted for Widodo at the last two elections, when Prabowo ran as an opponent, and has described the current president as a politician who "helps the little people".
Now, Jaswadi is happy to give his vote to Jokowi's former fierce rival. "Prabowo needs to continue Jokowi's work, to make sure staples and daily necessities can be cheap," he said.
With recent polls putting the Prabowo-Gibran pair in the mid to high 40s for support, the two politicians are assumed to be a shoe-in to win February's vote against two rival pairings, which are both languishing in the low 20s across opinion polls.
But a failure to capture at least 50 per cent of the vote would mean the Prabowo-Gibran ticket would have to contest a run-off election in late June, extending the campaign by four more months.
It would be a costly endeavour and one they are keen to avoid.
Given the state of the race, there has been increasing speculation that Widodo, who goes by Jokowi, will break with norms and start publicly campaigning to help drive up support for his son and former rival before the vote.
At the heart of Gibran's appeal is that many Indonesians want his dad to continue pulling the strings of power, despite term limits forcing him to step down later this year.
A respected opinion survey in January showed after a decade in power, Widodo still enjoys a 76 per cent approval rating.
In a country riddled with poor infrastructure and corruption, Widodo is viewed by many as a builder who gets things done with little fuss.
The main tollway connecting Solo and Jakarta was built during his tenure, as was South-East Asia's first high speed rail and a new metro for the capital.
Critics say he's overseen a backsliding of democracy in Indonesia, including weakening the country's anti-corruption body and announcing a costly plan to move the capital city from Jakarta to Borneo without prior public consultation.
He also backed a new criminal code, which threatens to impose jail time on those who insult the president.
More recently, Widodo faced a backlash when his brother-in-law, the chief justice of the country's Constitutional Court cast the deciding vote to allow Gibran to enter the vice-presidential race, despite being under the minimum eligibility age of 40.
But Jokowi, as he's widely known, criticised rival candidates for bringing up accusations of nepotism, saying they should avoid "personal" attacks.
"Jokowi has a talent to persuade, impress and mesmerise common people," said Siti Zuhro, a professor of political science at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, who describes the president's down to earth image as a "myth".
"So this campaign isn't about Gibran himself, but about Jokowi's ability to wield power.
"There's nothing significant about Gibran's qualifications except that he's utilising the power of his father, a man who clearly wants to extend his grip on power through the candidacy of his son."
Professor Zuhro has many peers in academic circles echoing similar complaints about Jokowi, but opinion polls suggest broader sentiment towards him remains warm.
"We still have nepotism, collusion, a patronage system and a top-down culture," said Professor Zuhro. "Yet we also have direct elections, so it's an imperfect democracy."
While Gibran worked the crowd at the rally in Semarang ahead of Prabowo Subianto's speech, he had his own support act.
His little brother, 28-year-old Kaesang Pangarep was first out on the stage, warming up the supporters in his capacity as chairman of a small political party that his father appears to have completely taken control of.
The PSI party doesn't have any seats in the parliament, but is part of a broad coalition backing the Prabowo-Gibran bid for power.
Kaesang, as he's widely known, was suddenly announced as the new chair of the party last year, and since then a well-funded operation has put posters featuring him, his brother and his father across Indonesian cities.
The newly emerging dynasty is a far cry from the humble image that Mr Widodo brought with him from Solo when he emerged on the national political stage in 2012.
Among a field of dynastic candidates, military strongmen and tycoons, the former furniture salesman's down to earth appeal swept him to consecutive presidential election victories.
Now, with both his sons firmly entrenched in politics, it's hard to imagine Joko Widodo will step too far back from the machinations of power when his term ends in October this year.
Many in Indonesia clearly would prefer he doesn't step down at all.
"I'm not concerned about a political dynasty," said 20-year-old Vemas Ade Saputra, a university student in Solo who says he'll likely vote for the frontrunner pair.
"I've seen that Jokowi is really genuinely working for the country, so if he does what he does for the sake of Indonesia, then it's fine," he said.
Ahead of the presidential and legislative elections on February 14, streets in cities across Indonesia are covered by candidate posters and the flags of political parties.
But the one place you might expect to find posters of Gibran – his home city of Solo – is devoid of them.
A local regulation banning political posters in the town centre means his face is hard to find despite being Solo's mayor for the past two years.
But he appears, anecdotally, to enjoy a lot of support there. "Gibran is friendly, handsome and good looking," laughs Retno Wulandari, a 48-year-old grandmother running a fried chicken cart with her family.
The business-owner, along with other vendors, credit Gibran with revamping parts of the city to attract more events and visitors. "In my opinion he's not too young. It's time for the older generation now to give the young ones a chance," she said.
When asked about Gibran's powerful father, Ms Wulandari described Gibran as "the best" and said after 10 years in power "you can see the progress".
Even undecided voters in Solo speak highly of the mayor.
"He works fast, he shows results, he's very active on social media," said 19-year-old Aqila Cikal Aryanto, a university student and first time voter. "He's close to the people and when there are complaints, he would immediately respond on his social media."
She's less enthused about Gibran's running mate, and says she's leaning towards voting for one of Subianto's rivals, the governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo.
If Jokowi were to enter the campaign officially in favour of his son, some believe it might be enough to win over voters put off by his former opponent. Others aren't so sure.
"I think the nepotism controversies created by Jokowi and his allies are too much and it will slow down the momentum of the Prabowo-Gibran ticket," said Siti Zuhro. "To win this election in one round won't be as easy as Jokowi thinks."
Source: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-04/could-widodo-son-secure-fathers-legacy/10341383