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Analysis: Ridwan Kamil joins Golkar. Who benefits?

Source
Jakarta Post - January 30, 2023

Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – The Golkar Party is looking to receive a boost of power ahead of the 2024 elections with the arrival of West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil as a new member.

Chairman Airlangga Hartarto announced Ridwan's entry to the Golkar fold on Jan. 18, saying the move had allowed the party to look toward the elections with guarded optimism amid the increasingly fierce competition. Airlangga added that the party now stood a great of winning the most votes in West Java for the first time since 2004.

Prior to joining Golkar, Ridwan had been a member of Kosgoro 1957, an organization affiliated to Golkar. The party's overwhelming confidence in Ridwan also saw him immediately appointed to two strategic positions in the party: deputy chairman and co-chair of the election committee (Bappilu). During last Wednesday's announcement, Airlangga explained that in his new posts, Ridwan would be responsible for wooing voters and helping the party win the elections.

Ridwan is known as a nonpartisan politician. Running as an independent candidate, he won the Bandung mayoralty in 2013 with support from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Gerindra. Five years later, he won the West Java governorship alongside running mate Uu Ruzhanul Ulum, this time with the backing of the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB), Hanura and the NasDem Party.

One of Ridwan's most valuable capitals that Golkar can exploit is his strong social media presence. Counting among the younger, digital savvy generation of politicians, Ridwan's lighthearted online persona has cemented his popularity among the Indonesian public, which has only contributed to his rising electability.

For the 2024 legislative election, Golkar has set an ambitious goal of winning 20 percent of the vote and 115 seats in the House of Representatives.

As the de facto leader of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) it formed with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the PPP, Golkar is still set on nominating Airlangga for the 2024 presidential election while banking on Ridwan's electability to attract voters.

Golkar politician Dave Laksono has confirmed that the party's decision was unchanged. However, the KIB is yet to make a final decision on its presidential-vice presidential pair, and Airlangga's sagging electability rating remains a problem. Several regional branches of PAN and the PPP have voiced their support for Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who hails from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). In response, Golkar deputy chairwoman Nurul Arifin said the KIB members were free to weigh their options, as nothing was set in stone as yet.

Although it is unlikely Ridwan will run for the presidency under the Golkar banner in 2024, it is possible that he will seek reelection as West Java governor or aim higher by bidding for the Jakarta governorship. Golkar executive Ace Hasan Syadzily said Ridwan had the potential to win a second term as West Java governor because he already met Golkar's requirements, which included a high electability rating and excellent performance. Ace added that Golkar would not hesitate to nominate Ridwan for the Jakarta gubernatorial race, although Airlangga would have the final say.

What's more

Before Ridwan joined Golkar, PAN had also courted the West Java governor, who was not shy about demonstrating his close ties with PAN on several occasions. PAN politician Jabar Hasbullah Rahmad once went so far as to say that he believed PAN would nominate Ridwan as its vice presidential candidate if the governor joined the party. Hasbullah said that aside from Ridwan, another potential vice presidential candidate the party was watching was State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir.

Following Golkar's announcement, PAN deputy chairman Viva Yoga Mauladi stated there were no bad feelings between his party and Ridwan. He added that PAN still considered Ridwan a close friend of the party because PAN and Golkar were allied in the KIB. PAN secretary-general Eddy Soeparno said separately that PAN respected Ridwan's decision.

Amid the fanfare over Ridwan's entry into Golkar, it was speculated that the event was part of a larger political dialogue between President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, the NasDem Party and Surya Paloh as well as between Jokowi, Ganjar and the PDI-P. The speculation draws on the fact that the KIB is among the political vehicles Jokowi is driving to keep his political clout intact after his second and final term ends in 2024. Rumors allege that Jokowi brought Ridwan into Golkar's fold as "revenge" for NasDem and Surya Paloh's support for Anies Baswedan's presidential bid, preventing NasDem from recruiting Ridwan.

What we've heard

A Golkar source said Ridwan's joining the party was inseparable from Jokowi's political maneuvering. Initially, Jokowi encouraged Airlangga to seek all possible means to increase his electability rating toward his potential bid for the presidency. However, the President noticed that Airlangga's electability did not improve, despite his going on a road show and taking out giant billboards across the country. "Emil had been readied as an alternative presidential candidate for Golkar to push," said the source, referring to Ridwan by his nickname.

Apart from Ridwan potentially being named as Golkar's presidential candidate, the source said the party had also discussed Ridwan's potential nomination as the KIB's vice presidential candidate. The source added that Ridwan had a chance at being paired with Ganjar if the latter won Megawati Soekarnoputri's backing. However, the source also said Golkar was waiting to see how this option developed, as the PDI-P had yet to confirm Ganjar as its choice, though a potential Ganjar-Ridwan pairing was projected to dominate the polls in Central and West Java.

So far, Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto has continued to lead opinion polls as the figure with the highest electability in West Java. However, based on a survey by Kompas Research & Development, Ridwan is starting to overtake the defense minister as the most popular figure in West Java.

Another alternative that is being prepared is for Ridwan to run for Jakarta's deputy governorship. A high-ranking Golkar politician revealed that this scenario would be considered after the party had nominated its candidates for president and vice president. A decision on these alternatives could be made following the presidential nomination stage at the end of 2023. Whatever the decision, Ridwan was certain to be in the running in 2024, at either the national or regional level.

[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]

Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/01/30/analysis-ridwan-kamil-joins-golkar-who-benefits.htm

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