Stefani Ribka, Jakarta – The limited reshuffle at the National Police headquarters on Monday has immediately attracted the attention of members of the country's political and security circles, as it is assumed to have an effect on who will take the law enforcement agency's top position.
The naming of Insp. Gen. Tito Karnavian as the new chief of the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) is seen by many as a stepping stone for the 51-year-old to be the next National Police chief, although he faces competition from six other potential candidates.
The outgoing Jakarta Police chief will soon be the seventh and youngest among the three-star generals in the police force, all of whom are in line to become the next police chief. Tito will also be the first among his 1987 police academy batch, to be granted a three-star rank.
The other six are police deputy chief Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan; police inspector general Comr. Gen. Dwi Priyatno; head of the National Police's security maintenance division Com. Gen. Putut Eko Bayuseno; Narcotics Agency (BNN) head Comr. Gen. Budi Waseso; Police educational institution head Comr. Gen. Syafruddin; and chief secretary at the National Resilience Institute Comr. Gen. Suhardi Alius.
Budi Gunawan and Dwi will both be retiring next year; Eko, Budi Waseso and Syafruddin in 2019; Suhardi in 2020 and Tito in 2022.
The National Police Commission (Kompolnas) said that Tito's promotion had increased his profile and opportunity to be the next police chief. "It won't happen now, but maybe it [police chief] will be his next job," Kompolnas commissioner M. Nasser said over the phone on Tuesday.
Nasser said Tito was a potential candidate as he had the outstanding track record and communication skills necessary to coordinate with different institutions. His achievements include the arrest of fugitive Tommy Soeharto, son of former president Soeharto, and the killing of terrorists Azahari Husin and Noordin M. Top, who were behind several major bomb attacks in the country in the past.
Apart from being the top graduate of the 1987 police academy class, Tito has also had the privilege of enjoying studies abroad and getting his MA in Police Studies from the UK's University of Exeter and a PhD in Strategic Studies from Singapore's Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Police observers Adrianus Meliala and Erlangga Masdiana share Nasser's opinion about Tito's bright future. However, the public has lingering questions about the Jakarta Police's recent move to refuse to give the recent Turn Left Festival permission to be held in Taman Ismail Marzuki.
Nevertheless, analysts argue that the move was directed by policies at the higher level, such as those from the National Police Chief and top regional administrators. They were also of the opinion that the security situation in Jakarta will not be significantly affected.
Based on previous experience, personnel changes within the police force do not really change the management and arrangement of security forces in the country overall.
"Rotations and resultant different styles of leadership only affect 15 percent of the practice in the field. The rest remains the same, since police are only the executor of policies made by the institution itself as well as the regional and central governments," Adrianus told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Adrianus is upbeat that Jakarta will remain safe next year under the new Jakarta Police chief Insp. Gen. Moechgiyarto, who is now West Java Police chief.
"Jakarta has seen more complex elections [of governors, councillors and presidents] in the past. The police have already achieved a state of best practice and they just need to repeat that," he added.