Lenny Tristia Tambun & Hotman Siregar – Only by boosting economic opportunities outside Jakarta can the annual influx of people into the capital following Idul Fitri celebrations be stemmed, an expert said on Monday, as the Jakarta administration confirmed it would not undertake a crackdown like that seen in past years.

Purba Hutapea, head of the Jakarta Population and Civil Registry Agency, said that 51,000 newcomers will soon arrive in town, though roughly 15,000 will likely be transient visitors.

"The data is based on the results of a survey. There are 15,000 people who will only be in Jakarta temporarily, meaning that they will return to their hometown or seek work in the Greater Jakarta Area," Purba said.

A random sample of passengers at the city's main transport hubs will be surveyed throughout the week to provide an estimate of the number and purpose of new arrivals to Jakarta. Last year, according to Purba, around 48,000 newcomers arrived in the capital and stayed permanently.

But police on Sunday said that with nearly 10 million people leaving the capital during the pre-Idul Fitri exodus last week, a much larger number was expected back.

"Based on past experience, we are concerned that those who left Jakarta will return with their relatives, resulting in the addition of more than a million people to the capital's population," Jakarta Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Rikwanto said.

He said the expected influx of mostly unskilled newcomers looking for jobs in the already crowded city could contribute to unemployment and crime.

There is no law preventing the arrivals, and the best solution is to develop rural and regional economies to compete with the capital's lure, experts say.

Yayat Supriyatna, an urban planning lecturer from Trisakti University, said that unless villages and towns across Indonesia can provide jobs and business opportunities, migration to Jakarta will continue.

"Around 70 percent of the country's economic activity is concentrated in Jakarta. Meanwhile, it's becoming more difficult to be a farmer back in the villages as agriculture is increasingly dominated by big businesses," he said.

Yayat noted that migration to Jakarta did not happen only during Idul Fitri, making it difficult for the city administration to monitor it.

In the run-up to Idul Fitri, authorities urged people leaving the city for the holiday to avoid bringing back newcomers, especially those without useful skills for urban employment.

Speaking after a meeting with Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and Deputy Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Purba said that officials in the capital were working closely with the country's outlying regions to discourage urban immigration.

He cited West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali, Lampung and West Nusa Tenggara as provinces that have historically been significant sources of Jakarta-bound migration. City authorities, Purba added, will also continue to conduct routine identity checks in order to force newcomers to update their documentation.

The Jakarta administration has urged those from outside the capital not to come to the city in search of jobs unless they already have something arranged. "If you don't have a job waiting, then don't come to Jakarta," Basuki said recently.

He said unskilled newcomers or those without guaranteed jobs put more pressure on the city's already strained public services and on the families and friends they stay with. "They're bound to stay with family here, and if they've got no money, that puts these families in a jam."

On Monday, Basuki, however, confirmed that the Jakarta administration was powerless to stop people from coming to the capital.

"People are free to come to Jakarta as long as they don't violate the laws. We are aware that more people are on their way to Jakarta because their relatives have invited them," he said, adding that creating traffic congestion by working as vendors along the capital's streets was one example of violating city regulations.

Basuki said the city would not conduct a special operation, as controversially undertaken under previous administrations, to try to force newcomers to go back home if they did not have an identity card stating a Jakarta address. "It's a waste of time, energy and money," he said.

Yayat said the Jakarta administration would struggle to ensure there are jobs and housing for newcomers.

"If Jakarta fails to provide better public transportation then the traffic problems will worsen, while if it fails to provide cheap public housing, slum areas will grow," Yayat said.

He called on Jakarta and regional administrations to boost efforts to cope with migration problems. This could be done by enhancing development in the provinces and building a culture of entrepreneurship at the local level, and also campaigning to persuade people to stay to help develop their own hometowns, he said.