Kornelius Purba, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is expected to announce his new Cabinet lineup very soon. His aides have been boasting that the President who once bowed to pressure from the major political parties and vested-interest groups would be history. They believe the new Cabinet will signify a "rebirth" of the President.
But should we think he is the only head of state in this country? We have some other "kings" who are no less powerful than the President himself. No Cabinet should ever try to make decisions contrary to the interests of Golkar Party chairman and business tycoon Aburizal Bakrie.
On Thursday, the President summoned the leaders of the ruling coalition parties – including Aburizal – in a clear attempt to show to the public that he was in full control of the coalition. But the smiling Aburizal sent a different message: I am the kingmaker (if not the king).
The party bosses know very well that the government will stall if the President does not give them what they want. Judging by the greed of the political parties, it is clear that what they want – in the name of their constituents – is more money and more power.
So, with little doubt, I am willing to bet (although gambling is illegal in this country) that President Yudhoyono's ambition to hire only the most capable and unblemished people for his new Cabinet will not mean much for the country's actual government.
The President has repeatedly voiced his zero-tolerance stance on corruption and abuse of power, but when dirty money plagued his own Democratic Party, he did almost nothing to clean it up. The party's axed treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin, now a suspect in a high-profile corruption scandal, has repeatedly admitted to having shared with fellow party members and other politicians the money that he extorted from businesspeople and stole from state projects. But Yudhoyono has not punished anyone.
Can the President expect the public to swallow his anticorruption promises while violations of his commitment are so blatant? Do we expect a miracle that our charming leader, who cares so much about his image, will suddenly get tough in upholding the law, even at the cost of his nice-guy brand?
But we need to remember that the country's economy will continue to grow steadily no matter if the government exists or is missing in action. Investors will continue to come because our domestic market is too huge to ignore. For them, poor infrastructure, notorious bureaucracy and bribe-seeking law enforcers are tolerable as long as the bottom line is right.
Look at the market's reaction amid all the bureaucratic turmoil: The rupiah is fluctuating – but not because the international community is waiting for the Cabinet reshuffle – simply because of the global financial unrest.
No matter who the retired four-star Army general will bring into his new Cabinet (even if he naturalizes former US president Bill Clinton as his chief economic minister), he will still be leading a "lame-duck" government until he finishes his second five-year term in 2014.
The President will continue to make beautiful speeches on his government's success in reducing corruption and the rising position of Indonesia among the world's largest economies and democracies.
There is little doubt in President Yudhoyono's capability and strong political will to bring Indonesia to prosperity over the next three years. He will be eternally remembered in history as the country's first directly elected president who won a second term because the people dreamed – wrongly – that the country would rid itself of its most humiliating disease: corruption.
Please do not expect too much from him unless you are ready to face heart attacks or the kind of prolonged frustrations that will land you in a mental hospital.
You may ask: Who do you think you are that you dare to make such conclusions? Are these conclusion based on thorough studies like the polling organizations that hire genius researchers to sell their business?
Trust me. You just need to talk your drivers or your security guards to get an in-depth view of the country's politics. You do not need to read analyses by people with PhDs to know the direction of the country.
Hopefully I am wrong, and the President will be able to transform himself into the kind of leader that the tens of millions of voters wished for when they envisioned him as their superhero in the fight against corruption.
But the concerted efforts of the die-heard corruptors and their accomplices – who all the while enjoy the luxuries of their crimes – to castrate the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) eventually harvested their most nutritious fruit on Tuesday: the acquittal of Bekasi Mayor Mochtar Mohamad by the Bandung Corruption Court.
The verdict has ruined the KPK's long-standing pride that not one person who stole from state coffers had escaped the corruption court. Again, hopefully the Bekasi mayor's case will steel our leader in his noble mission to bring the nation into a much better situation.
For a while, to answer questions about SBY's Cabinet reshuffle, I could only laugh Hahahahahaha.