Adam Gartrell, Jakarta – Australia and Indonesia kicked off 2009 with an orgy of bilateral backslapping. February's Australia Indonesia Conference was the diplomatic equivalent of a 1960s love-in, all peace, togetherness and understanding.
Things have never been better, we've never been closer, officials from both countries enthused. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd delighted in pointing out that he'd met with his Indonesian counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, seven times the previous year.
"We've now entered that into the Guinness Book of Records under the bilateral relations heading," he quipped.
But as Foreign Minister Stephen Smith pointed out, the Australia- Indonesia relationship has always been prone to "ups and downs" – and 2009 was no exception.
The year brought renewed cooperation on terrorism, people smuggling, natural disasters and climate change but it also brought controversy.
The Australian Federal Police's decision to launch a war crimes probe into the Balibo Five journalists – killed during Jakarta's 1975 invasion of East Timor – put a lot of Indonesian noses out of joint.
As far as the Indonesian Government's concerned, it's case closed: the men died in crossfire. It's completely deaf to claims the Indonesian military deliberately murdered the men to cover up their invasion.
It's not yet clear whether the AFP will pursue the case with any real vigour. But if it does, it will undoubtedly strain the bilateral relationship.
"It's a potential irritant," says Greg Fealy, an Indonesia expert from the Australian National University. "And I think the Indonesians were irritated that the AFP, with whom they have had a very close relationship on terrorism and people smuggling, would be taking on this investigation."
The Rudd Government's so-called "Indonesia solution" to asylum seekers has also strained ties. While Rudd and SBY have been perfectly at one in public – asylum seekers are a regional problem and we all have to do our share – many Indonesians resent Australia's behaviour on the issue.
Senior Indonesian officials have complained that Rudd is using their country as an asylum seeker "dumping ground", just to avoid political pain at home.
Australia is a rich country that can provide for refugees, they point out. Indonesia is a poor country that cannot properly provide for its own people. "I think there is a broad view within Indonesia that Australia is in a much better position to be dealing with these people," Fealy says.
Despite his public pronouncements, SBY himself probably resents Australia's approach to the issue, Fealy says. "But SBY's a very pragmatic leader who can see the advantages of continuing to have very good relations with Australia," he says.
Contrary to popular opinion, it's unlikely SBY's displeasure over asylum seekers played any part in his decision to cancel his trip to Australia in November. At the time, SBY was facing two of the biggest corruption scandals of his five year presidency.
One of those scandals – surrounding last year's 6.7 trillion rupiah (A $786 million) bailout of the local Century Bank – is still threatening to derail his government. SBY is fighting allegations that some of the bailout money was redirected into his re-election campaign earlier this year.
The bailout was overseen by Indonesia's central bank, run at the time by Boediono – now SBY's deputy. Protesters have called for Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati to be sacked over the affair. If an inquiry finds dirt on SBY's hands, he could be impeached.
All of which means Indonesia could be in for a tumultuous 2010. And that's not good news for Australia.
Under SBY, Indonesia has become a paragon of regional stability and democracy. It has emerged from the global financial crisis with barely a scratch, staged a series of peaceful elections and all but crushed terrorism.
But if SBY was removed or sufficiently weakened, Indonesia could slip back into the disarray of years gone by. Of course, even if SBY survives, 2010 won't necessarily be smooth sailing for the Australia-Indonesia relationship.
As well as the Balibo probe and asylum seekers, the looming executions of three of the Bali Nine are set to flare as bilateral issues. All three – Scott Rush, Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran – are expected to lodge their final appeals in 2010.
If those appeals fail, their only hope of survival will be presidential clemency. Australians will expect the Rudd government to do all it can to convince SBY to spare the drug smugglers.
Whatever happens, the government seems optimistic the good relationship can survive. "There have been periods when we have not seen eye to eye," Smith told February's conference. "But we have now learnt to address our differences without disrupting the whole relationship."
But Fealy urges caution. "I think successive foreign ministers say those kinds of things," he says.
"But I think there's still a lot of issues that could emerge that could undermine those kinds of undertakings. Anyone who was too confident about that is someone who's oblivious to the broader patterns of Australian-Indonesian history."