Markus Junianto Sihaloho – The Golkar Party will select its new chairman based on wealth, access to the government and desire to bring the party closer to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's ruling coalition government, political analyst Syamsuddin Haris said on Friday.

With Golkar's four-day national leadership meeting set to kick off in Pekanbaru, Riau, on Monday, the race is on to replace the outgoing chairman and vice president, Jusuf Kalla, and potentially become a frontrunner for the presidency in 2014.

With Yudhoyono unable to constitutionally contest a third term, the prospect is a mouth-watering one.

Speaking in Jakarta at a discussion about Golkar's leadership, Syamsuddin Haris, a political researcher from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said it was likely that as with Golkar's 2004 national leadership meeting in Bali, where Yudhoyono-aligned Kalla replaced Akbar Tanjung as head of the party, money politics and power would again feature.

Kalla, he said, had money, a strong political position and vision to bring the party into a coalition with the government. "Most Golkar members who have rights to vote in the next meeting will again use such criteria to choose the next chairman," he added.

There has been a strong current within Golkar to stay in government, Syamsuddin said, which meant forming a political partnership with Yudhoyono's Democratic Party was a must for them.

He said that current Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie was the candidate who best fit that mold. Bakrie is a prominent businessman, with a good political position in the current government and closer ties to Yudhoyono than the other candidates.

Bakrie's main rival for the party helm, media mogul and senior party executive Surya Paloh, meanwhile, has plenty of wealth but no political clout, Syamsuddin said. "And Surya Paloh also tends to be more independent regarding Golkar's political position with Yudhoyono and his Democratic Party."

Chairman of the Indonesian National Youth Committee (KNPI), Ahmad Doli Kurnia, another speaker at the discussion, said the financial prowess of candidates would be the main factor in choosing the next chairman, pointing out that three of the five candidates, Bakrie, Paloh and Tommy Suharto, were all wealthy businessmen.

Ahmad Doli said he laughed at suggestions that Golkar members were confused about who to vote for, instead saying that most would be enjoying the situation of having three candidates with deep pockets contending for their support.

Syamsuddin gave the example of Paloh's advertisements in the Kompas daily newspaper this week, claiming the backing of some Golkar regional heads for his candidacy. He said that he believed the advertisements would only be used by the officials to boost their bargaining power with the other candidates.

Ahmad Doli said such practices should be stopped, with members choosing the party chairman based on their consciences and the candidates' qualifications. "The vision of the candidates to build Golkar as a modern party must be the main consideration," he said.

Alfan Alfian, a political analyst from the National University, Jakarta, said that a change was taking place within Golkar, with more and more businessmen taking up senior positions. It was different from the past, he said, when the party was led by many activist-based politicians like Akbar Tanjung.

Such a transformation, Alfian said, would become a death sentence for Golkar unless the businessmen could adopt a different way of managing the party. "Managing a business corporation is not the same as managing a party. Money is not enough to build a stronger party – there must be good vision for Golkar to stay alive," he said.

Alfian said Golkar's current demise was proof of his theory, caused by the leadership style of Kalla, who was also a businessman. He urged party members to forget money politics when deciding its leadership, saying "Such practices harm the party."

Separately, Golkar's executive board confirmed that the party would go ahead with its national congress on Monday, regardless of the unfolding earthquake disaster in the neighboring province of West Sumatra.