Patrick Guntensperger, Jakarta – Once dominant under an authoritarian regime, Indonesia's Golkar party is losing its popular appeal in a more democratic era. The party lost substantial electoral ground at recent legislative polls and its presidential candidate, Jusuf Kalla, is widely tipped to lose to the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at presidential polls in July.
While Golkar maintains sufficient momentum and legislative numbers to remain politically relevant, there is a growing sense inside the party that without major internal and leadership changes it could be perceived as a political anachronism by a younger generation of voters at the next polls.
That's because Golkar is still widely viewed as the once all-powerful military's political vehicle, despite the party's best efforts in recent years to make its look, leadership and message more civilian.
Golkar was founded in 1964 as a coalition of over 200 non-governmental organizations and community groups, but was supported, orchestrated and backed by a group of military generals who were legally required to be apolitical.
When strongman Suharto trumped independence leader Sukarno in 1967, Golkar swung its support behind the enigmatic general, a hand-in-glove relationship that endured for 32 years of authoritarian rule. Golkar's military backers propped Suharto's New Order regime, including through its efforts to manage elections in his favor and suppressing any hint of political dissent.
With Suharto's fall in 1998, Golkar's monopoly on power was broken and the party fragmented as different military generals aligned themselves with newly formed parties or established their own political vehicles. Golkar was narrowly outpaced by Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) party at the 1999 polls, and there were real fears at the time that the military might seize power rather than cede power to the daughter of former independence leader Sukarno and a known Suharto adversary.
Golkar gradually shed its military linked baggage and new political parties in Indonesia are curiously organized in Golkar's old image, including through their use of uniforms, loyalty oaths, paramilitary training and even marching exercises. Golkar recovered at the 2004 legislative polls, notching 24.4% of the vote to Megawati's PDI-P's 18.5%. But Golkar lacked a charismatic front man and Yudhoyono swept the presidential polls despite his upstart Democrat Party notching less than 8% of the popular vote.
Confronted with potential resistance in the House of Representatives (DPR), arguably the true core of political power in post-Suharto Indonesia, Yudhoyono took on Golkar chairman Kalla as his vice president in a bid to avoid constant legislative deadlocks over his reform agenda. Given Golkar's clout in the DPR, influence in the executive office and still strong grassroots machinery, many Golkar stalwarts felt as though they were still in de facto control.
Yudhoyono and Kalla were known to wrestle behind the scenes over policy issues, though in customary Indonesian fashion they denied the charges to maintain a veneer of serenity on the relationship. Now competing on the presidential hustings, both candidates are staking claims to particular policy successes, including the internationally lauded peace deal brokered in Aceh province.
But Kalla's inability to maintain Golkar's position as the leading legislative vote-getter, dipping from 24.4% in 2004 to 15% in April, and with opinion polls indicating he will likely lose by a large margin to Yudhoyono in July, has split the party. While one camp continues to back Kalla, another more vocal faction is already calling for new party leadership and a change in strategic direction.
To be sure, ex-Golkar stalwarts are scattered and well placed across Indonesia's political landscape. That includes representation on all three of the contending presidential tickets, indicating in one way or another Indonesian voters will opt for a candidate that is closely linked to the party of the ousted and discredited former dictator Suharto. Yudhoyono was one of Suharto's young proteges and came under heavy media criticism for not pushing harder for the now deceased dictator's conviction on corruption charges.
PDI-P presidential aspirant Megawati has tapped ex-general Prabowo Subianto, until recently a Golkar advisory council member and now leader of the upstart Gerindra party, as her running mate. Prabowo was until recently married to one of Suharto's daughters. Kalla, meanwhile, has tapped ex-general Wiranto, the former head of the military (TNI) under Suharto, as his vice presidential pick.
Golkar is by those connections expected to exert influence over any administration, regardless of who wins the polls. At the same time, Golkar surrendered at April's polls its past dominance over the DPR, falling behind Yudhoyono's Democrat party and only narrowly edging the PDI-P. Yudhoyono, who for the past five years has frequently locked horns with Kalla, represents Golkar's weakest link to the three presidential candidates.
Destined to lose
Certain Golkar faction leaders are convinced that the Kalla-Wiranto ticket will lose badly in the first round of the presidential polls and are already lobbying to hold a party leadership convention before the polls. Many inside the party have pinned Golkar's sliding fortunes directly to Kalla, who they believe has been outmaneuvered by Yudhoyono and outlived his political usefulness.
With Kalla expected to be isolated after the presidential polls, party operatives are already in search of a new high-profile party leader with the ability to form coalitions and cut deals with Democrat representatives in the DPR. Other Golkar stalwarts are said to be taking a wait and see approach.
Should the Yudhoyono-Boediono ticket fail to win a clear majority and an election run-off is required against the second placing one, the outlying third party which receives the fewest votes will have the potential to play kingmaker by directing their support base to one or the other of the remaining two candidates.
If Golkar falls into that position, as many feel likely, the party could use the bargaining chip of an open chairmanship to curry favor with Yudhoyono. By elevating a party chairman agreeable to Yudhoyono, Golkar could mend its severed ties with Kalla and increase the party's chances of winning influential cabinet posts.
There are a number of candidates known to be queuing up for the job, each of whom would bring distinct pluses and minuses to the top slot. Former Golkar leader and chairman Akbar Tandjung is already being touted as one distinct possibility. The old style politician has been instrumental in establishing the DPR as the real seat of political power rather than a rubber stamp of the executive.
Tandjung is also widely credited with rehabilitating Golkar as a political force after it stumbled at the 1999 polls. He has also been tainted, though never convicted, in a handful of corruption scandals that some say have eroded his grass roots appeal. When the Supreme Court acquitted him of involvement in one particular scandal in 2004, students protesting outside the court were assaulted by police and riots broke out in several cities across the country.
Another frontrunner for the post is Agung Laksono, current head of the DPR and Golkar's vice chairman. If he can convince the party's rank and file that he's capable of consolidating Golkar's factions in the DPR into a coherent voting bloc, while also working hand-in-hand with the Democrats, analysts believe he has a good shot at taking over Golkar's leadership.
On the downside, the spectacular collapse of his commercial airline, Adam Air, is still fresh in local minds after the January 2007 accident that resulted in the deaths of 102 passengers. That accident and the airliner's appalling safety record contributed to the ban imposed against all Indonesian airlines from entering European airspace.
Others believe the charismatic Fadel Muhammad, the current governor of Gorontalo province, could rise on a new generation ticket inside the party, though he is still an outsider with the many older party stalwarts. He too has been tainted by scandal and is now fighting charges of misusing his provincial office's budgetary funds.
What is clearly lacking on the country's political scene is a new generation of charismatic and clean politicians. Golkar will undoubtedly remain a major influence in politics after a new government is formed in October, regardless of how it fares at the presidential polls. But if Golkar opts to continue shuffling the same old and tainted personalities into positions of prominence, the party may yet risk becoming a historical footnote in Indonesia's new democratic era.
[Patrick Guntensperger is a Jakarta-based freelance journalist and political and social commentator. He lectures in journalism and communications at several universities and is a consultant in communications and corporate social responsibility. He may be reached at pguntensperger@yahoo.ca.]