The other two presidential hopefuls may be suspicious of the rosy projection for the Indonesian economy made Friday by the International Monetary Fund and its high commendation of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) management of the economy in coping with the fall out from the global financial crisis.
As the campaigning period for the July 8 presidential election is now officially open, anything that is seen as being in favor of one of the three candidates could be the subject of suspicion. The IMF mission, which concluded a 10-day assessment of the Indonesian economy last week, is quite bullish about the country's economic outlook, praising the timely policy changes made to cope with the shocks of the global financial crisis, and revising upward its 2009 growth projection for the country to a range of 3-4 percent, from 2.5 percent previously.
At first glance, the conclusion and the timing of the economic review seemed to be designed to bolster the grand-posturing of the SBY-Boediono ticket. Recent allegations labeling former central bank governor Boediono a neoliberalist and staunch supporter of the IMF only added to the suspicions of this economic assessment.
But it is worth noting here that the IMF makes its regular annual assessment of Indonesia's economy in light of its surveillance mechanism in late May. Last year, its annual review was completed on May 29. Hence it is a simple coincidence that this year's assessment comes at the start of the campaign period for the presidential election.
The bullish projection of the Indonesian economy reflects its actual condition. The economy expanded by 4.4 percent on the back of vigorous domestic consumption over the first quarter as most other countries contracted. In fact, throughout Asia, only Indonesia, India and China still made respectable gains.
The fiscal stimulus and massive political spending related to the legislative election last April and the upcoming presidential election contributed greatly to boosting domestic consumption at a time when the demand from the international market contracted by around 30 percent.
The IMF's final report will not be available until August, but their preliminary findings, summed up in a news conference last week, were not without strong notes of caution.
The IMF economists warned that the signs of global recovery or "green shoots" in the economies of developed countries may not sustain for the rest of the year. There is still a lot of uncertainty and the potential for another bout of adverse swings in global markets remains.
Hence, careful macro-economic management will have to continue. This is especially challenging now as both the incumbent president and vice president as well as many Cabinet ministers become preoccupied with campaigning.
Pending the appointment of a new central bank governor to succeed Boediono, which is not expected before August, the burden of economic management now falls heavily on Finance Minister and Acting Chief Economic Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati (fiscal) and Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Miranda Goeltom (monetary).
Accelerating the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures should be the government's priority number one, as the impact of election-related expenditures will fade next month and economic growth must be maintained for the rest of the year.