Jakarta – Political experts are not sure if the presidential elections will get to a second round, but say incumbent SBY will almost certainly win.
"It's going to be a close race with the three pairs of candidates. The race will end in two rounds with the winner leading by a thin margin," University of Indonesia lecturer Boni Hargens said Sunday.
"The competition will not be easy for SBY because his popularity and positive image have been slightly tarnished by recent issues such as the voter list fiasco and the extravagant fiesta he held during his official candidacy declaration in Bandung," he added.
However, there was one positive outcome from the costly declaration, namely SBY running mate Boediono's unscripted and clear speech, which experts said was "surprisingly phenomenal".
"Personally, I was very surprised to hear Boediono's speech, which was even better than the ones given by SBY," said Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) analyst Burhanuddin Muhtadi.
The Democratic Party's coalition partners – the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – heavily criticized Boediono for having weak political networks and little experience in politics.
"Boediono's excellent speech has cast off any doubts about him. The speech also shows Boediono is a quick learner in politics," Burhanuddin said.
Boediono's competent and sincere image was also reflected in his speech, which could potentially boost SBY's support, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) expert Lili Romli said.
"Boediono did not show a defensive stance in response to all the criticisms made against him. His answers to his critics were sincere and contained a good amount of naivet, which can be an added value to his image," he said.
Both Lili and Burhanuddin said it was possible the SBY-Boediono pair might win the elections in one round unless their rivals – Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto and Megawati Soekarnoputri-Prabowo Subianto – played the right cards.
Lili said being a native Bugis from South Sulawesi and the only non-Javanese candidate, Kalla could use his background to lure voters from outside Java.
"However, I still prefer the Megawati-Prabowo duet's way of competing. JK has become too personal lately with his attacks on SBY. He really needs to cool off, while Megawati and Prabowo have offered something concrete and rational with their people-based economic policies," he added.
Jeffrey Winters, an Indonesianist from the Northwestern University, said he also believed SBY would win the election in a single round.
"The only major risk SBY is facing is running against Prabowo, whose potential to win is hard to calculate. However, Prabowo's inability to forge an alliance to become a presidential candidate has removed all roadblocks for SBY," he said.
"SBY will have no difficulty defeating Megawati and Jusuf Kalla, and could do it in a single round. He is on a secure path to becoming the first reelected president in the history of Indonesia's democracy," he added. (hdt)