Muninggar Sri Saraswati, Camelia Pasandaran & Febriamy Hutapea – After confusing and at times dizzying maneuvers by nine top political parties in forming coalitions and tickets for the July 8 presidential election, the chosen ones have emerged.
Vice President Jusuf Kalla has joined with former Armed Forces Chief Wiranto; former President Megawati Sukarnoputri with former Army Strategic Reserves Command Chief Prabowo Subianto; and incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with former central bank Governor Boediono.
While the April 9 legislative elections held only a few surprises, there's plenty to talk about with the "unexpected" vice presidential candidates chosen by Kalla, Megawati and Yudhoyono, and whether their running mates will help the tickets. It would be hard to find another country with such a colorful cast of candidates.
Both Wiranto and Prabowo have major human rights questions attached to their military careers that are still well-remembered by voters. Both figures were implicated in the fatal shooting of students at Jakarta's Trisakti University and in the May 1998 riots, and have been accused of atrocities in East Timor.
Prosecutors for the United Nations in East Timor indicted Wiranto for alleged human rights abuses related to its bloody breakaway from Indonesia in 1999 but he has denied any wrongdoing.
For his part, Prabowo has been accused of involvement in the kidnapping and torture of pro-democracy activists during the New Order regime, which was led by his then father-in-law President Suharto.
Junaidi Simun, a researcher at Imparsial, a prominent human rights group, criticized Kalla and Megawati for ignoring the "bleak human rights records" of their respective running mates.
"This year's elections will confirm that Indonesia is suffering from amnesia of its history, as there will be two vice presidential candidates in the July polls who are [accused of being] responsible for a series of rights violations," he said, adding that it would be an issue for voters come July.
Imparsial, as well as the families of victims of human rights cases attributed to both Wiranto and Prabowo, had earlier asked executives of the Golkar Party, chaired by Kalla, and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), chaired by Megawati, not to pursue the two former generals as vice presidential candidates.
Far from being in the spotlight for alleged human rights violations, Boediono has his own baggage: his background and economic policies.
Boediono, like Yudhoyono, is from East Java. Yudhoyono's vice presidential choice goes against the long-held conventional wisdom in Indonesian politics that an ideal presidential pair should be a representation of Java and the regions outside Java, civilian-military and nationalist-Islamic.
Andrinof Chaniago, a political lecturer of the University of Indonesia and chairman of the Cirus Surveyor Group, an election observer, said he agreed with a number of polls showing that Yudhoyono, whose Democratic Party easily won the April elections, would win the July poll regardless of the identity of his running mate.
"However, the background origins [of Boediono] could reduce votes for Yudhoyono," he said, adding that Kalla and Wiranto could benefit from the "Java-outside Java" formula as Kalla is from South Sulawesi.
Burhanudin Muhtadi, of the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI), said Kalla's campaign team could use this issue during the upcoming campaign to attract non-Javanese, which make up more than 30 percent of the country's 170 million eligible voters.
He predicted that Megawati and Prabowo would perform better than Kalla and Wiranto because of the PDI-P's solid political machine and the financial power of Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). They have also touted alternative policies to those of Yudhoyono's government, such as pro-people economic programs.
Yudhoyono and Boediono, however, are still the favorites to win the polls, possibly in only one round, Burhanudin said. The president romped to victory in 2004, without a huge political machine, by making a personal connection with voters. Now, he has both as the Democrats won a commanding 20 percent of the vote in April's polls, in which both Golkar and the PDI-P lost numbers.
Some noted economists also predict that Boediono, a former finance and economic minister, would add value to Yudhoyono's ticket by giving confidence and hope to Indonesians amid the global financial crisis that has hampered the country's economy.
"Boediono fits the position as he is a reputable economist, calm and decisive. Such abilities to handle the country's economy in this time of crisis become a necessity," economist Faisal Basri said.
He also brushed aside claims that Boediono was a supporter of neo-liberalism, saying that Boediono supported pro-people policies when he was Yudhoyono's coordinating minister for economic affairs.
Djimanto, who chairs the Indonesian Entrepreneur Association, praised Boediono for "having a thorough understanding and experience of economic fundamentals."
"But I think he is not suitable to lead recovery attempts if the economic crisis hits its lowest level," he said, "although he would still be okay to handle it at the middle level of the crisis."
Some Islamic-based parties that are part of Yudhoyono's coalition protested his selection of Boediono, who is a Muslim but not an Islamic leader. Their bluster was more likely to hide their disappointment at not having one of their cadre become the vice presidential candidate, as they soon closed ranks last week after the president stood firm on his running mate.
Lili Romli, of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said the absence of an "Islamic" candidate on the tickets was not surprising as Muslim-based parties suffered their worst showing in the polls since 1955, with less than 30 percent of the combined vote.
In the 2004 presidential elections, Yudhoyono and Kalla won despite their rivals fielding an "Islamic" candidate.
"It's true that Muslim voters are the majority. Contrary to the beliefs of many Western analysts, Indonesian Muslim voters are rational [and] religious background is not a major preference here," Romli said.
The most recent survey conducted by LSI showed that religion and ethnicity appeared to be losing their hold as factors in voter preferences and replaced by concerns about the economy and which team was best equipped to deal with the issues.