Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta – The people have spoken. Although many mistakes were made by the General Elections Commission (KPU) and minor disturbances and irregularities took place, the April 9 legislative elections in general have been peaceful and fair.

As predicted in many surveys over the last few months, the Democratic Party of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has become the number one party in parliament.

According to quick counts by several survey institutions, the party gained about 20 percent of votes, or triple the support it got in 2004. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party came in second and third, each garnering around 14 percent of popular votes. They are the three first-tier parties, and they all are nationalist.

The rise of the Democratic Party stemmed from SBY's popularity, which masked a very weak party machine. SBY has achieved wide popular support due to his populist policies that were acceptable to the people.

Those policies have not contributed to overcoming unemployment or eradicating poverty, although they do not seem to matter to the people during the elections. They also can create a lot of damage in the future, and SBY's government may be ill-prepared for a real downturn in the Indonesian economy due to the continuing crisis. It is expected the crisis will exert a greater impact still on the economy in June or July.

In the meantime, SBY has greater leverage now to choose his vice presidential candidate, because only the Democratic Party will be able to reach the parliamentary threshold of 20 percent of seats. But it will become more difficult for him to form a majority coalition in parliament that could make or break his programs in the next five years.

Support for the PDI-P declined by 5 percent from 2004 (from 19 percent to 14 percent), while Golkar experienced a greater fall, by 7 percent, from 21 percent in 2004 to 14 percent this year. As the main opposition party, the PDI-P could not dent SBY's popularity in the eyes of the people outside their true believers, because of the "teflon" impact their attacks (and those of other parties) had on SBY.

Golkar's decline was due to their late efforts to consolidate the party, although the poor results of last year's regional elections for governors in many regions, especially in North Sumatra and West Java, should have been a warning. Golkar was also unable to capitalize on the achievements of the government to boost their popularity, as SBY and the Democratic Party did.

The second tier of parties is led by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), who only gained 1 percent more than they did in 2004. In the end, the urban middle class who previously supported the PKS appear to have had second thoughts when they saw how the PKS governor in West Java created havoc by banning the performance of a popular folk dance like jaipongan. Furthermore, their role in the anti-pornography legislation and support for sharia law as a legal benchmark in more than 50 regencies is being watched closely.

But the more interesting question now is what will happen next.

With SBY's popularity and the achievement of the Democratic Party in the legislative elections, SBY is naturally the favorite to win the presidential election. And it is now up to him to look for his VP candidate and to form his coalition, which he needs to craft a parliamentary majority to push his programs through.

Creating a coalition will not be difficult for him because the smaller parties will want to join the government, but it will be another matter to ensure these parties will consistently support his programs. Who will he invite as his VP? Several times during the campaign he tried to persuade Jusuf Kalla from Golkar to stay on as his VP, but Kalla was unable to commit because he was dependent on his party's decision.

Of late, however, Kalla has given indications he will join SBY as VP and will bring Golkar back into the coalition in parliament to support the new government under SBY. In doing so, he will prevent the PKS becoming SBY's closest partner in the coalition. SBY has been especially weak toward moves by conservative Muslims to impose sharia law on the pluralist and nationalist state based on Pancasila. The PKS has tried to portray itself as a non-Islamic party, but the trust that non-Muslims need to fully accept this party in the same manner as they have accepted the PAN and the PKB is not there yet, especially in the party's genuine support for a pluralistic Indonesia. In addition, the decision-making process in that party is not transparent.

SBY's need to secure a majority in parliament to support government policies is the main bargaining point for Kalla and Golkar. Kalla still has to deal with dissenting views within Golkar, but most of the factions and their leaders have always preferred to be in the government rather than outside it.

The PDI-P, meanwhile, is crafting a coalition with Gerindra and Hanura. It should be aware the two leaders of those parties are still under a political cloud due to their past military abuses in Jakarta and East Timor. This could be a great liability for the PDI-P and Megawati in the presidential election.

But it is good for the PDI-P to participate in the presidential election to show that democracy is alive in Indonesia and that there is opposition to SBY in the election and in parliament. It will be an uphill battle for the PDI-P to win, but they have been in opposition before and have done this very effectively. They also have the trust of a decent number of people in building a nationalist state.

[The writer is vice chairman of the CSIS Foundation's board of trustees.]