Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Results from Indonesia's legislative election last week have raised more questions than they answered. None of the 38 parties contesting the ballot appears to have gotten sufficient support to field a presidential candidate without reaching out to partners to form a coalition.
The early vote count leaves every party with key decisions ahead of July's presidential ballot, Indonesia's second-ever direct election for the top job. The coming weeks will test political leaders across the board to make the right choices for themselves and their parties. And the toughest exam sheet landed on the desk of Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who doubles as the chairman of the military-linked Golkar's Party.
According to preliminary results, Golkar finished with around 14% of the vote, well behind the 20%-plus of the Democrat Party led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), and running neck-and-neck with former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P. Golkar could take second place in the official count, due next month, because it has more broadly based support than PDI-P, which gets nearly all of its backing from Java and Bali. No other party came close to double digits, and only nine passed the 2.5% threshold for seats in parliament.
The results mean Golkar, former president Suharto's ruling party during three decades of New Order corruption and autocracy, lost a third of its voter support if compared with 2004, when it replaced the PDI-P as the largest party in the lower house of parliament. But it's still one of the three top parties and its formidable field organization makes it an attractive partner. Forming a winning coalition will prove challenging for Golkar, though.
Aiming for the top
Kalla has stated that he wants to run for president, and, as Golkar's chairman, he's certainly the frontrunner for the party's nomination. While some in the party want to blame Kalla for the poor showing at the legislative polls, Kalla gives Golkar a credible post-Suharto image, looking forward rather than back. Golkar under Kalla has, for governing purposes, partnered with Yudhoyono's Democrats. But if Kalla wants to run for president, he needs to dissolve that partnership and find a new one.
Last month, Kalla held a much-publicized meeting with Megawati, leading to speculation that Golkar and the PDI-P could become coalition partners. At first glance, the pairing seems perfect: the number two and three parties ganging up on the number one. Even though the PDI-P came into being in response to Suharto's attempt to oust Megawati as leader of a sanctioned opposition party in his days of guided democracy, and later flourished as the vehicle for anti-Golkar reformasi, Megawati's presidency betrayed her old-guard values, including tolerance for corruption.
The PDI-P takes some liberal positions and is the most consistent defender of religious tolerance, but under Megawati's leadership it's arguably become a mirror image of Golkar. Megawati and Kalla also have a good track record as partners. Megawati put Kalla in her cabinet as coordinating minister for people's welfare. He made his political name in that post, negotiating settlements to Muslim-Christian conflicts in Central Sulawesi and the Moluccas.
But similarities and chemistry won't make a Golkar-PDI-P partnership easier. The biggest problem is that Megawati wants to run for president, too. Never mind that she was resoundingly rejected by voters in the last presidential election and that the PDI-P's popularity has kept sinking under her leadership. As a former president, and a proud, privileged Javanese, it's inconceivable that she would accept the second spot on the ticket.
Winning is everything
Ideology doesn't rank high in Indonesian politics, but Golkar's New Order legacy would make it difficult for it to team up with any Islamic party. The key calculation for Golkar and any partner will be whether they're creating a winning team with Kalla.
A native of South Sulawesi, Kalla is a latecomer to politics who took over a teetering family business and created a commercial empire, at least by local standards. Active in politics as a student, he was appointed to the national legislature under Suharto in 1987, but maintains a reputation for integrity. He was briefly a member of former president Abdurrahman Wahid's cabinet, but was dismissed on corruption allegations that are now believed to reflect more Wahid's erratic nature than Kalla's honesty.
In his five years as Yudhoyono's vice president, Kalla has often been far more visible and audible than his boss. In Asian business terms, Kalla has seemed to be the government's managing director, taking frontline responsibility, while Yudhoyono has been in the background as chairman. Another more local analogy might be more apt. Yudhoyono's leadership style reflects his Javanese background, where power is used sparingly and subtly; Kalla comes from a less restrained ethnic Bugis background.
That difference also matters because, according to conventional wisdom, only a Javanese can be elected president. Java is home to over half of the archipelago's population, but the notion seems awfully quaint and dated, particularly since Indonesia will be holding just its second direct president election this year. Questions about Kalla's appeal are less about geography than biography.
Don't preach, sing
Kalla has never run for public office before. His no-nonsense, business-like style with a hint of piety doesn't suggest a smooth transition to Indonesia's campaign stump, where candidates are expected to sing popular songs after displays of either fiery rhetoric or phony humility. On issues, to the extent they may come up, Kalla would face the difficult dance of taking credit for his accomplishments as vice president without the majority of the credit going to Yudhoyono. Moreover, there's simply no discernable excitement for Kalla's candidacy at the grassroots level, or perhaps more crucially within Golkar's elite.
Kalla's biggest problem, however, is timing: it seems unlikely that anyone can beat Yudhoyono in this election, and turning 67 next month, Kalla doesn't have time to wait for 2014. Last week's vote shows that's there's plenty of enthusiasm for Yudhoyono and not much yet for any potential opponent. In this climate, the best move for Kalla, and for Golkar, is for him to stay on the ticket as Yudhoyono's running mate, with or without Golkar's endorsement.
Whatever his ambitions, and however justified he may believe they are, Kalla should understand that vice president under SBY is the best job he can realistically hope to attain. Yudhoyono would seemingly welcome the opportunity to keep his winning ticket intact and avoid the potential pitfall of naming a new running mate. As the incumbent and favorite for re-election, he doesn't have to offer the vice presidency to bring in enough minor party parties to reach the 25% threshold.
For Golkar, the situation is a more complicated. As the second- or third-largest party in the new parliament, carrying the legacy of the nation's greatest period of prosperity and development (never mind the repression and corruption), Golkar owes its loyal membership a viable presidential candidate.
It has no shortage of party figures, such as media magnate Surya Palo or Yogyakarta's governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, and even alumni in minor parties, including former generals Wiranto, the party's 2004 presidential candidate, and Prabowo Subianto, who would be happy to take up Golkar's presidential banner, even in an apparently futile candidacy.
Kalla and Golkar may have to endure a ritual excommunication of its chairman for deserting the party. But with Kalla on Yudhoyono's ticket, Golkar will have the best of both worlds. If its candidate wins, Golkar will have recaptured the presidency, a stunning rebound from the disgrace of Suharto's 1998 fall from power. In the more likely event that the Yudhoyono-Kalla team triumphs, Golkar will still have its man on the inside and be in position to get some of the spoils of victory in a system where you're either a winner or you're nowhere. Still, it will be difficult for Kalla to put aside his personal ambitions and lead Golkar to make the rational choice.
[Longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, Gary LaMoshi has written for Slate and Salon.com, and works a counselor for Writing Camp (www.writingcamp.net). He first visited Indonesia in 1994 and has tracking its progress ever since.]