Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Five years ago, Indonesia's Prosperous Justice Party pulled off a stunning electoral coup, winning 7.2% of the national vote and topping all parties with 22% in Jakarta, the nation's capital. This Islamic party, known locally as PKS (Partai Kedailan Sejahtera), became the country's hottest political commodity alongside another new player, retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono – known as SBY – and his Democratic Party. Both attracted grassroots support by promising a clean break from the established top political parties.
Yudhoyono went on to win the presidency, while PKS saw its leader Hidayat Nur Wahid chosen as speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (DPR), a high-profile platform for extending the party's electoral success. But while Yudhoyono is the frontrunner for the presidential polls scheduled for this July, experts predict that religious parties, including the PKS, are headed for their worst ever showing at the April legislative elections.
With its strong mass network through mosques, PKS might yet produce another surprise at the polls. But the party has seemingly failed to capitalize on its strong showing in 2004 by consolidating the Islamist vote or expanding the party's base. The PKS leadership's inability to decide on which path to follow might be one reason the party has not progressed on par with SBY's Democratic Party.
A bigger problem may be that what was fresh and new in 2004 has become just another party in 2009. "For many people – particularly Muslims – PKS has not seemed to have much distinction vis-a-vis other parties," said Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University history professor Azyumardi Azra. "In the parliament and also in provincial parliaments, like in Jakarta [where PKS holds the most seats], PKS has failed to fight for peoples' interests. PKS has [gotten] lost in the political struggles and intrigues."
In 2004, PKS won votes on a staunch anti-corruption platform that resonated with voters, while keeping its advocacy of instituting sharia (Islamic) law in the background. Opposing corruption is always a crowd pleaser, but analysts predict it will not be nearly as effective for PKS at the upcoming polls. "It is a case of Parkinson's Law," former presidential spokesman Wimar Witoelar believes, meaning that PKS has become a victim of its own success. "As major parties became irrelevant, PKS came up representing a breed of young, idealistic and religious people. Success has given it access to higher electoral goals for which it does not have candidates."
No to limos
As DPR speaker, Nur Wahid refused a new car and hotel suite that came with the job. Those gestures were meant to set a tone for politicians to treat public service as a public trust rather than a platform for personal gain. Neither Nur Wahid's example nor his leadership has changed DPR's reputation as a place where passing legislation takes a back seat to political grandstanding and graft. PKS may even have gotten caught up in the political culture it ran against. PKS secretary general Anis Matta has been accused of soliciting "contributions" from office seekers, charges Matta and the party deny.
While PKS has foundered, Yudhoyono and his administration have successfully built a reputation for prosecuting corruption. Never mind that Yudhoyono remains obsequious to deposed president Suharto's clan and his former military colleagues. For the public, the anti-corruption issue largely belongs to the Democratic Party.
If PKS was not ready for the prime time in 2004, as Witoelar suggests, it hasn't made significant progress since. That may be due to splits in its ranks. "One is the faction Keadilan (Justice), which tries to hold fast to PKS idealism such as Hidayat Nurwahid," Azra, a leading moderate Muslim thinker, explains. "On the other hand, there is the faction of Kesejahteraan [Welfare], which includes Anis Matta, it is very pragmatic and tends to have a very strong interest in material well-being."
On the campaign trail, this split plays out as an identity crisis, according to Azra.
PKS seem to have lost its original identity. During the campaign now, it asserts that it can be "red" [the symbol of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Democratic Party of Struggle], "yellow" [the symbol of Suharto's former ruling vehicle the Golkar Party], or "green" [the symbol of Abdurrahman Wahid's secular Muslim Awakening Party and the moderate Islamist United Development Party], for the sake of the Indonesian nation-state. So, PKS tries to show itself as a party that can accept "any color" or pluralism. As a result, the party seems to have compromised its original identity which is "pristine Islam".
Some party officials are even talking up the possibility of Nur Wahid replacing Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla as Yudhoyono's running mate.
In practical terms, PKS has yet to formulate a defining issue that has mass appeal, while walking the fine line between promoting sharia and maintaining credibility as inclusive, or at least non-threatening, to the country's 30 million-plus non-Muslims. Even among the Muslim majority, there's limited enthusiasm for sharia.
But the legislation most closely identified with PKS in this session of parliament is the controversial pornography bill passed last year. Aside from limiting freedom of speech and expression, the bill's vague provisions could be used to outlaw ceremonial dances and other traditional practices of not just minorities but Muslim groups. Most troublingly, the bill allows enforcement by citizens, effectively legalizing vigilantism and aligning PKS with violent fringe factions such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), that regularly attack opponents with armed mobs.
Victim mentality
In 2004, PKS also caught several favorable public opinion and social currents. Following US president George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq, PKS warnings against excessive American influence played well. That's a far less potent issue with US President Barack Obama, who has pledged to withdraw US troops from Iraq and spent his youth in Jakarta. The Iraq invasion also fed a tide of Muslim victimization in 2004, and supporting radical Islam at the ballot box was a relatively harmless way to assert religious pride and strike a blow against the oppressors.
But the tide turned against radical Islam following the 2005 Bali bombings, the first verified suicide bombings in Indonesia. No one in Indonesia is against Islam, but mainstream opinion turned against radical Islam and Islamists after the incident. Yudhoyono's administration, which follows public opinion far more than leads it, felt comfortable enough to denounce sharia measures enacted locally (though it hasn't moved to repeal any of them). More visibly, it carried out the executions of three convicted 2002 Bali bombers late last year. None of the feared Islamist backlash followed.
In its election platform this time, PKS is attempting to tap into Islamist populism by pledging support for Palestinians. While few Indonesians oppose Palestinian aspirations, the issue is unlikely to be a big vote getter in a country that still suffers from rampant poverty and unemployment and faces slowing growth or worse as the global economic crisis slashes demand for its exports.
Yudhoyono's presidency has set a climate in tune with Indonesia's go-along, get-along national ethos. He's successfully lowered the political temperature that was running far hotter in 2004 after having four presidents in six years, or two more than in the republic's previous 44-year history. In Yudhoyono's Indonesia of incremental reform, radical solutions are out.
Even with the electoral stars seemingly aligned against it, PKS still could surprise, as it did in 2004. "PKS is still a substantial party, but without the focus that it had in its early days," Witoelar says. "Still, it has more emotional content than most parties and has mobilizing capability because of its access to modern communications technology." But Witoelar admits, "I have no idea how it will fare."
[Longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, Gary LaMoshihas written for Slate and Salon.com, and works as a counselor for Writing Camp (www.writingcamp.net). He first visited Indonesia in 1994 and has been going back ever since.]