Patrick Guntensperger, Jakarta – Indonesia is in a heightened state of political confusion as national legislative and presidential elections approach. The April 9 legislative polls will determine political alliances, strange bedfellows will sort out their sleeping arrangements and after a handful of executive candidates tap their running mates, a new president will be elected in early July, unless, of course, a second run-off is required.
These will be only the second direct presidential elections held in Indonesia, following those of five years ago which saw Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono swept into power on a platform of political and economic reform. Yudhoyono has made some improvements and his administration has seen through the conviction and sentencing of a number of wayward high-level officials.
Although he is viewed as the frontrunner, Yudhoyono's presidential performance has in many important ways been lackluster. In particular, he is widely perceived as indecisive and far too deferential to the leftovers of former dictator Suharto's era, many of whom still make up the bulk of the country's bloated, corrupt and inefficient civil service.
With that mixed record, the local papers are rife with speculation regarding possible moves on Indonesia's complicated political chessboard. For instance, will Golkar, Suharto's and the military's erstwhile political machine, win enough parliamentary seats to remain among the current main three political parties, among Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, or PDI-P?
Who will incumbent Vice President and Golkar party chairman Yusuf Kalla choose as his running mate to contest the presidency against Yudhoyono? Can Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's founding dictator, Sukarno, regain the presidency she lost to her former minister and now political rival, Yudhoyono?
Some of these questions will be answered by the results of the April 9 legislative elections and more will be raised in the run-up to the July presidential polls. The stakes are high, with an opportunity to further consolidate recent democratic gains in the world's largest Muslim country. To be sure, it's been a rollicking ride for Indonesia's young democracy.
Since the fall of Suharto's 32-year tenure in 1998, Indonesia has had four presidents. The first, Jusuf Habibie, previously Suharto's vice president, was an engineer and Golkar member who stepped in to the presidency largely by accident. He had grandiose plans that were never implemented, largely as a result of the inept and corrupt entrenched civil service that is perhaps Suharto's greatest adverse legacy.
Following him was the erratic Abdurrahman Wahid, popularly known as Gus Dur, an Islamic scholar and outspoken anti-Islamist. Never one to attempt self-censorship, his somnolence and gaffes on the international stage are legendary and eventually undermined his administration's legitimacy.
Riding her father's enduring popularity and her resistance to Suharto's regime, Megawati rolled into the presidential palace under her PDI-P party banner. She was widely criticized for holding afternoon karaoke sessions and evening soap opera watching nights, degrading the prestige of the office. She allegedly arranged her state visit schedule around her overseas shopping opportunities and many came to view her tenure as one of stagnation and corruption.
In the country's first direct presidential election in 2004, Yudhoyono won an overwhelming victory, much to Megawati's chagrin. When Yudhoyono, a minister in her cabinet, broke with her and formed his own political party to contest the polls, Megawati let it be known she considered the move a personal betrayal. To this day, the palace logistics team has a full time job ensuring that Megawati and Yudhoyono never appear at the same time at any event.
High democratic stakes
The future of Indonesia's young democracy is genuinely at stake because Yudhonyono's presidency, perceived by many Indonesians as truly democratic, has at the same time failed to bring about the changes that many expected on his election. There is concern in some quarters that the past decade of democratic gains could still be rolled back with the emergence of a populist, military-backed and democratically elected candidate.
Instinctively, many in the country don't bridle at the thought of the rise of yet another authoritarian regime headed by a strong charismatic leader. Indeed, the two most beloved figures in recent Indonesian history, according to polls, are founding dictator Sukarno and the man described by some historians as perhaps the most corrupt head of state in modern history, Suharto.
In comparison, Yudhoyono is widely perceived as vacillating, obsessed with appearances and unwilling to make unpopular decisions. For instance, under his watch, Tommy, as Suharto's favorite son is popularly known, was released from prison after serving a little more than four years on a conviction of having a Supreme Court justice murdered. That he served his time – literally – in a country club is known to anyone who played golf in Indonesia during his incarceration.
More seriously, perhaps, is that the outcry for charges to be laid against Suharto and recover the alleged billions of dollars his regime pilfered from the national coffers has gone largely unanswered. Yudhoyono subscribed to the notion that the deposed dictator was too ill to stand trial and he has been photographed visiting the ailing dictator at his home and literally going down on his knees to kiss his hand out of respect.
The bureaucracy, despite the substantial efforts of the invigorated Corruption Eradication Commission, is still widely seen as functioning in a corrupt, inefficient and complacent manner. On the economic front, Yudhoyono's policies have failed to put a substantial dent in stubbornly high poverty and unemployment rates, despite his vows on the 2004 hustings. Instead of a dictatorship of one man, as under Suharto's New Order regime, Indonesia has been characterized by some analysts now as a dictatorship of political parties.
Nonetheless, Yudhoyono is widely seen as the favorite to win the presidential poll. He consistently scores highly in public opinion polls, not necessarily because of an enormous popular love for his leadership, but because he is seen as inoffensive and, true to his Javanese culture, willing to appease. Most significantly, there is simply a dearth of more compelling candidates.
The next strongest candidate, preliminary polls indicate, is Megawati. She remains popular despite her controversial first tenure, largely through a well-oiled political machine which reaches deep into the country's grassroots population.
On the periphery is Wiranto, a retired army general who has been circling the center of Indonesian politics since the time of his mentor Suharto. Although politically astute and charismatic, he stands accused of overseeing human-rights abuses and crimes against humanity through his perceived command control of the state-sponsored violence that ushered in the separation of East Timor from Indonesia in 1999.
Another military dark horse candidate, Prabowo, a soldier with a spotty human-rights record and son-in-law of Suharto, has thrown his hat into the presidential ring. He's articulate, bright, and, his critics say, politically ruthless. He meets his accusers of rights abuses head on and says simply that his "conscience is clear".
Yogyakarta governor, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, is well-respected and being courted by various parties as a potential running mate. His royal profile is sufficiently high, and without the political warts that have sullied other candidates' image, he would potentially represent a respectable counterbalance to several different presidential tickets.
There are countless other presidential pretenders, but everyone's playing a wait-and-see game until the results of the legislative elections. When those elected seats are distributed, there will be a mad scramble among political parties to form alliances and create sellable presidential and vice presidential tickets.
If one of the parties were to notch a solid majority of the parliamentary seats, unprecedented in the previous two post-1998 elections, it would likely add to the political confusion and open the way for a dark horse vice presidential candidate from a potentially small party or far-flung province.
Analysts say a second Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket is still possible, even though Kalla has thrown his hat into the ring as a potential presidential candidate. Some even predict Megawati-Kalla could join hands, though many believe she favors Sultan Hamengkubuwono X as her running mate.
Without a clear legislative majority, it still seems that any candidate who wants a shot at the palace, and any hope of governing the country effectively, will need to select a running mate who is affiliated with another big party. Such are the permutations and combinations of Indonesia's chaotic democracy.
[Patrick Guntensperger is a Jakarta-based freelance journalist and political and social commentator. He lectures in journalism and communications at several universities and is a consultant in communications and corporate social responsibility. He may be reached at pguntensperger@yahoo.ca.]