The Democratic Party (PD) wins the most votes in the April parliamentary election, and its candidate, the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, running with Jusuf Kalla of the Golkar Party, once again goes on to win the presidential election in July – in just one round. Indonesia will be led once again by the same set of leaders.
These are the predictions of the latest opinion polls for this year's national elections, organized by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) as well as the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and the Institute of Economic and Social Studies and Development (LP3ES).
At a time when many surveys are being commissioned by political parties or presidential candidates, it's refreshing to find one that is free of political interests and is therefore reliable.
Still, many of the findings, including the Democratic Party lead and Yudhoyono's strong popularity, confirm what most other surveys have told us before.
Like earlier surveys, one must take this poll with a grain of salt. More than half of the 3,000 respondents said either that they had not made up their minds about which party to vote for, or that they may still change their minds on election day.
And, as appealing as the pairing of SBY-JK seems to some (there is no need to go to the runoff and save the nation a lot of money and trouble), it's not clear whether the pair will in fact run together again.
SBY will still win the most votes if paired with other candidates, but he will likely have to go to the second round, the outcome of which is anybody's guess.
One thing we can learn from this survey is that even with 38 political parties contesting the election, there seems to be a crystallization of votes towards the big three: The Democratic Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party.
The Islamists, like the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), are struggling with most other parties, and only eight parties look strong enough to make it into the House of Representatives.
The survey confirms the phenomenal rise of the Democratic Party, that was set up in 2003 as a vehicle for SBY's presidential bid in 2004. In a country where personality is more important than ideology or platforms, the Democratic Party is capitalizing on SBY's incumbency – but this also means the party rises and falls with his political fortunes.
Going by the survey, we don't expect any new parties to rise as prominently as the Democratic Party and PKS did in 2004. This would include the two nationalist parties led by retired Army generals Wiranto (of the Hanura Party) and Prabowo Subijanto (of the Gerindra Party) – the latter probably the most aggressive in terms of its TV advertising campaigns.
In the July presidential election, the poll comes up with only two names to note; SBY with 46 percent of the vote and Megawati Soekarnoputri of PDI-P with 17 percent.
The survey was conducted last month, just before Jusuf Kalla announced his intention to run for the number one slot. It's unclear how popular JK is among voters, but he is certainly a determining factor in his role as Vice President.
What the survey also does not indicate is how a pairing of Megawati Soekarnoputri-JK – now a possible combination – would affect SBY's reelection chances.
Who candidates partner with also decides their electoral chances, and the pairing will only take place after each party knows its own strengths following the April election.
A lot of things can still happen between now and April, and even more so between now and presidential election in July. Also, the state of the economy (heading south), will inevitably affect the way people vote.
Essentially, as interesting as the survey predictions seem, there are just too many variables to determine the winners at this stage.
So, sit back and watch the elections unfold in the coming weeks and months. Anything and everything is still possible. One thing is for sure: The outcome is very much in the hands of the people, and that is what democracy is all about.