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Jakarta Observed: Outsider prompts 'general' unease

Source
Australian Financial Review - February 25, 2009

Angus Grigg – It was a performance to remember, an act of sheer front. Prabowo Subianto, the retired three-star general, spent two hours rewriting history last week in preparation for his tilt at the Indonesian presidency.

The son-in-law of former president Soeharto was deathly funny and worryingly convincing. It was spin of the highest order.

The man who played a central role in Soeharto's New Order regime labelled the kidnapping of student activists in 1998 "preventative detention", while in East Timor he was just a soldier serving his country.

He had an answer for everything, even suggesting Indonesians should thank him for never staging a coup.

"I commanded 34 battalions and did not use them to continue the power of the New Order," he said. "I wished I had led a coup, now that I think about it," he said, laughing with the crowd.

But there was one question Prabowo couldn't evade. In an address to the Jakarta Foreign Correspondents Club he confirmed the United States had refused to issue him a visa.

This speaks to the seriousness of allegations made against him. In East Timor, for example, he is accused of funding gangs that tortured, murdered and kidnapped pro-independence figures. Some believe he should be tried as a war criminal.

In the May 1998 riots that brought down Soeharto he is accused of using troops under his command to propagate rape and violence against the Chinese community in north Jakarta.

Despite volumes of testimony to the contrary, Prabowo maintains he "served with honour" and that his "conscience is clear".

Regardless, he should still be politically toxic in a country proud of its hard-won democracy and the reforms of the past decade. This, however, is not the case.

Prabowo, while an outsider to become president, has re-emerged as a political force. His Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, claims to have 11.2 million members and is forecast to win more than 7 per cent of seats at the national elections in April.

This would not be sufficient to give Prabowo a shot at the presidency – candidates need 20 per cent of seats – but would provide the basis for a coalition ticket. If this were to happen the race could become very interesting.

Prabowo, with his presence, humour and command of the language, is a highly effective campaigner. He also has huge financial resources, thanks to his businessman brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who has already poured many millions into a national TV campaign.

Another factor is Indonesia's demographics. It's estimated that one in four voters are too young to remember the Soeharto era in any detail and therefore Prabowo is something of a cleanskin to them.

He could, with the right spin, represent change. To this end his campaign has targeted the lower rungs of society and those left behind in the good years, who will be hardest hit in the present financial downturn. "We have become the party of the dispossessed and the poor," he said.

That a gold-plated member of the Indonesian elite, who launched his campaign at a polo club owned by his family, can consider himself a man of the people is certainly curious.

Even more of a stretch, however, is his claim to have always been a democrat and advocate for reform, while systematically undermining democracy and human rights during his 28 years in the military.

"Prabowo is the most charismatic, enigmatic, unusual and weird guy I have ever known in my life," a defence analyst was quoted as saying in Adam Schwarz's book, A Nation In Waiting. "He's also laudable and detestable... Pick an adjective and it fits."

Political and religious leader Amien Reis is less charitable, describing Prabowo as a "criminal" and a "mercenary intellectual". Others have labelled him a "toy soldier" and "nut case".

Whatever his reputation, he can't be written off as he could well have a stake in the next government of Indonesia. There is a suggestion that, while the presidency is the ultimate goal, he might settle for control of one or two powerful ministries.

If President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wins a second term, as the polls suggest, he is likely to once again assemble a "rainbow" cabinet to ensure parliamentary support for his legislative agenda.

If Gerindra were to gain about 7 per cent in the new parliament it could well ask for one or two cabinet seats in return for its support.

Prabowo has told some in Jakarta he is eyeing the mining and agricultural ministries – hardly surprising given his family's extensive interests in coalmining, corn production and palm oil plantations.

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