Aleksius Jemadu, Tangerang, Banten – Among the retired generals who have nominated themselves for the presidency, Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto, former Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) chief, is the most aggressive in terms of the use of television advertisements and the consolidation of party constituents at the regional level.

In 2004, Prabowo attempted to bid for the presidency at the Golkar Party's convention, but he failed to gain the required level of support. Now that Prabowo has decided to go his own way for the presidency, all his supporters within the Golkar Party will choose to leave the party and support his candidacy.

So far, we can say that the Great Indonesia Movement Party, (Gerindra) of which Prabowo is the founder, has been successful in introducing itself to the public as a new party. What is more interesting in this context is Prabowo's emergence as a serious contender in the upcoming presidential election.

There is no clear indication whether Prabowo is willing to be somebody else's vice presidential candidate. His ultimate choice will depend on the results of the legislative elections in April 2009.

Some people argue it is difficult for a new party led by any ex-general to repeat the success of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with his Democratic Party, which managed to surpass the parliamentary threshold in 2004.

However, there is a prediction that with a huge amount of financial support for television advertisements and an extensive network of constituents, especially among farmers and fishermen, Prabowo's Gerindra may become a serious to against the established parties.

The skeptics will immediately say that Prabowo's controversial past will be a great constraint against him building a wide-ranging spectrum of constituencies.

Although he has never been declared guilty by the court in the case of the abduction of student activists while he served as the commander of the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus), many human rights NGOs still associate him with the crime.

It remains to be seen how effectively the campaign conducted by those NGOs will persuade voters not to support any presidential candidate they accuse of being implicated in past human rights violations.

It is very likely that the NGOs will intensify their campaign as we get closer to the legislative and presidential elections.

In addition, unlike the other presidential hopefuls with military backgrounds, Prabowo has never held a civilian position within the bureaucracy.

People can only guess how he will behave in an environment where the military rule of hierarchy cannot be used. Thus, there has never been a real test of his democratic credentials.

A critical study of the content of Gerindra's television advertisements will tell us that there is nothing new in the issues raised by this political party. Creation of new jobs, poverty alleviation, progressive agricultural policies, cheap education, political pluralism and national pride are among the main messages used by Gerindra to allure voters through the media.

The logic behind the use of television advertisements is that if the public is bombarded with the same information every day, at a certain point they will come to like the messages and will take them for granted. They will no longer question whether or not the party has sufficient capacity to carry them out.

With the limited time he has, Prabowo seems to have exploited this theory, although he has had to pay a high price for it.

It is not yet clear what other strategies or instruments Prabowo is going to use in addition to the building of a good image through the electronic media. When he led the Kopassus he trained many middle-ranking officers and they became very loyal to him.

We can only speculate to what extent these officers still have an emotional link with Gerindra or Prabowo himself. If they become part of Gerindra's party infrastructure after they retire, they may constitute an effective instrument in strengthening and widening the social basis of the party.

The position of Maj. Gen. (ret) Muchdi Purwopranjono, who was just acquitted by the court of all charges in the murder of human rights activist Munir, as deputy chairman of Gerindra, is of special importance for Prabowo.

With his extensive experience in intelligence, Muchdi could be a strategic asset both for the party and Prabowo himself.

Prabowo's optimism in his bid for the presidency is not without foundation. Within a relatively short space of time he has made Gerindra quite popular among the Indonesian public. The main basis of his popular support may come from the Indonesian Farmers Association (HKTI), of which he has been the chairman since December 2004.

Over the last few years he has been very active in consolidating the organization and promoting the fundamental interests of the farmers.

Time will tell whether a complicated combination of military gallantry and the spirit of populism in Prabowo's personality can be an effective formula for realizing the man's strong passion for power.

[The writer is acting dean of the School of Social and Political Sciences at Pelita Harapan University (UPH,) Karawaci. The opinions expressed are his own.]