Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – Victory or defeat for the Golkar Party in next year's legislative elections could spell certain doom for Vice President and party chairman Jusuf Kalla, analysts say.
Golkar's failure to repeat its victory in the 2004 elections could fuel discontent and spark rebellion within the party, which could result in Kalla being labeled a failed chairman, they said Thursday.
With recent surveys showing Golkar trailing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, Kalla's chances of retaining the nation's second-highest post are weakening, as the Democratic Party could seek a partnership with a stronger party.
"If Golkar fails to win and the Democratic Party beats the party, then Kalla's alliance with Yudhoyono could crumble as the President would simply look for another running mate, one who wouldn't have the potential to dictate him," Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said.
In a surprise finding, the latest survey released by the Indonesian Survey Institute shows the Democratic Party as the most popular party if the elections take place today with support from 16.8 percent of respondents, meaning it has leapfrogged the traditionally stronger Golkar and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), which secured 16 and 14 percent, respectively.
Qodari said Yudhoyono could simply take on as his running mate current People's Consultative Council speaker Hidayat Nurwahid of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) or another national figure from a minor party to replace Kalla.
Defeat for Golkar in next year's legislative elections could push the party to search for another popular figure to nominate as its own presidential candidate, rather than back Kalla for vice president, Qodari added.
A number of Golkar senior figures have said Golkar will be "very pragmatic" in choosing the party's presidential or vice presidential candidate.
Golkar's pragmatism implies the party, which once served as Soeharto's political vehicle for retaining power for 32 years until his downfall in 1998, is willing to sacrifice policies in order to stay a part of the country's ruling elite.
Golkar deputy secretary-general Rully Chairul Azwar said the party would pick a presidential or vice presidential candidate based on the figure's popularity and electability to ensure he or she won the election.
"There will be chaos if Golkar's local branches want change in the party's leadership and demand an alternative figure for president or vice president," Reform Institute executive director Yudhi Latif said.
However, should the party win the legislative elections, internal demand for an in-house presidential candidate will be irresistible, Qodari said. A Golkar victory would also destroy any hope of a repeat partnership between Yudhoyono and Kalla, he said.
"With most members being very pragmatic, they will nominate the figure who has the highest ratings or popularity in the national polls. And it will not be Kalla," Qodari said.
All recent national surveys have shown Kalla's popularity in the 1 to 3 percent range, while Sultan Hamengkubowono X, also of Golkar, who declared his presidential bid last month, appears to be the most popular Golkar hopeful, securing around 6 percent of voters.