Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Sunday announcement that he will run for reelection, which came 10 months before the 2009 presidential election scheduled for April next year, is untimely and may damage his image, observers say.
His hint that Vice President and Golkar Party chairman Jusuf Kalla will be his running mate may alienate him from potential supporters and long-time allies, critics say.
Executive director of pollster Indo Barometer Mohammad Qodari said it was not necessary for an incumbent such as Yudhoyono to announce his candidacy as it was already assumed.
"It's counterproductive. While the announcement gives him no benefits, it sent a clear message nationally that from now on everything he does will be for reelection, not for the people's interests," he said.
As an example, Qodari said that because of the announcement, Yudhoyono's time spent with farmers in a rice field ahead of the announcement would be seen cynically as an effort to woo voters rather than as an attempt to encourage the farming industry.
"This is such bad timing. His previous statement that he would focus on his administration's development programs instead of the election received praised. Why should he be in a hurry to announce his candidacy when it can be done after the legislative elections," he said.
The President broke months of silence Sunday by declaring he would run for reelection so that he could be given the chance to finish the economic programs and political reforms he had started.
Yudhoyono, who has been widely expected to seek a second five-year term in office, said it was likely Kalla would be his running mate.
Qodari said the President may have been attempting to take advantage of a period of relatively high favor due to declining oil prices and Indonesia's recent rise on the corruption perception index issued by Berlin-based Transparency International.
Reform Institute executive director Yudhi Latif said the strength of the Yudhoyono/Kalla pairing was uncertain as the Golkar Party and Yudhoyono's popularity had steadily declined in recent polls.
"The coalition of Golkar and the Democratic Party alone would not win Yudhoyono/Kalla an election. His announcement has driven away support from other political parties."
Survey results have of late consistently placed the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) well ahead of the Golkar Party, while the Democratic Party has received around 8 to 9 percent of votes.
Indo Barometer's survey shows the PDI-P has a 12 percent lead over the Golkar Party, while the Reform Institute shows that the PDI-P leads by more than 6 percent. A survey by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states that the PDI-P has advanced to a 2-percent lead over Golkar.
A June survey by Indo Barometer pollster shows that Megawati has raced to an almost-10-percent lead over Yudhoyono, while a July survey by the CSIS shows Megawati leading by 9 percent.
"PDI-P alone will have the same number of votes as Golkar and the Democratic Party combined, with around 25 percent. And don't be surprised if Yudhoyono/Kalla don't even make it to the run off if there is a third strong pairing," Yudhi said.