M. Taufiqurrahman, Jakarta – Former Free Aceh Movement leader Irwandi Yusuf, who leads Aceh's gubernatorial race, will face an uphill struggle to govern the province, analysts said Thursday.

Mohammad Qodari, of the new research institute Indo Barometer, said while Irwandi was polling convincingly at around 26 percent of the vote, being on an independent ticket would pose problems for him and running-mate Muhammad Nazar in the future.

"Together with the local legislative council, Irwandi is mandated by the Aceh governance law to draw up 90 qanuns (bylaws), yet he will have no support from political factions in the legislature," Qodari told a discussion.

The most pressing problem for the former GAM rebels, Qodari said, would be the repatriation of thousands of refugees who were displaced during the three-decades-long conflict between the rebel group and the Indonesian Military.

"There are now over 50,000 refugees from armed conflicts in the past who feel they are being left out in the post-tsunami reconstruction projects," Qodari said.

He said Irwandi and Nazar also needed to establish a good relationship with the Aceh-Nias Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Agency, another powerful institution which controlled a huge sum of money to rebuild the tsunami-hit areas.

Qodari believed Irwandi had made a blunder by announcing one of his top priorities would be to amend the Aceh governance law.

"He opened a new battle front against the major political factions in the House of Representatives, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Golkar Party, which has taken pains to produce the law," he said.

The Irwandi-Nazar pair are poised to lead Aceh after a quick vote count gave them convincing lead in Monday's direct gubernatorial election. The lead surprised many, who expected the victory would be enjoyed by candidates nominated by the major political parties.

Analyst Fadhil Hassan of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance said the new leaders of Aceh would also have problems dealing with the bureaucracy.

He said in the near future the province would be awash with cash from numerous funding schemes prepared by the central government but it would likely lack the human resources to manage it.

"The problem for Aceh now is not the lack of resources but how to manage the resources when it is left with the same incompetence bureaucracy. I doubt if the existing bureaucracy has the skill and competence to implement the policies of the new governor," he said.

He warned Aceh could repeat the failure of Papua to improve the well-being of its people, despite receiving the bulk of its special autonomy fund from the central government.

Meanwhile, activist Otto Syamsuddin Ishak of the Aceh Working Group said the likely victory of Irwandi and Nazar had overturned conventional wisdom about local politics.

"They weren't nominated by any political parties, neither did they spend much money on the election and they received only a little support from the media. Yet they could win the election," he said.