Tiarma Siboro and Tony Hotland, Jakarta – Military analysts cautiously responded to the United States' decision to resume lethal arms sales to Indonesia, warning that Jakarta may become trapped in Washington's foreign policy.
Andi Widjajanto of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that the government continue maintaining relationships with other arms suppliers that had promised to help Indonesia modernize its defense systems.
Dependency on a single country for military equipment, he said, would cause problems in the future if Indonesia was involved in a political rift with that country.
Andi, also a member of the civilian think-tank group at the Ministry of Defense, says the lifting of the US embargo would enable the Indonesian Military (TNI) to repair its relatively aging American-made weaponry.
"Of course Indonesia can save more on its defense budget once it turns back to the US because it will grant Indonesia facilities, including a longer term of payment and lower interest rate," Andi said on Thursday.
He added that the US would offer a better credit export facility than that proposed by Russia earlier this year. "But if our concern is modernization of our armed forces, I think Russian-made weapons can be the answer," Andi said.
Washington froze military cooperation with Indonesia in 1991 after a massacre of East Timorese mourners at Santa Cruz cemetery, which the US blamed on the Indonesian Military. The embargo was extended due to allegations of human rights violations linked to the military, again in East Timor, after the 1999 independence vote. Following the ban, Indonesia desperately sought military equipment from new sources.
The embargo has severely impacted the country's defense system. Out of 34 military planes that Indonesia has procured from the US, only five are still able to fly. Despite strong objections from legislators, the government purchased in 2003 four Russian-made Sukhoi jet fighters for the Air Force and two Mi-35 assault helicopters for the Army.
Following the visit of a defense ministry team to Moscow in May, Indonesia and Russia have agreed on "a simple mechanism" for arms deals in the future, which include Indonesia's plan to buy 12 more Sukhoi jet fighters, transport planes and missiles. While, the Navy has turned to South Korea and some European countries for the procurement of warships and patrol boats.
Ikrar Nusabakti of the National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said US President George W. Bush should have come under pressure from American arms producers who lost the Indonesian market because the embargo.
"The arms suppliers may be surprised to find we're surviving with weaponry from other sources. Of course, improving military ties with Indonesia is essential for the US in the so-called global war against terrorism," Ikrar said.
He agreed that the change in the US policy might decrease the number of human rights abuse cases involving the TNI, and be a boost for the peace deal struck with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM).
Ikrar, however, reminded the government to make use of all opportunities to procure the best and latest arms instead of second-hand arms because the latter would cost the country a lot in the long term.
The House approved a Rp 21.9 trillion (US$2.4 billion) defense budget for this fiscal year, a slight increase from Rp 21.4 trillion last year. But only 30 percent of the total budget has been allocated for maintenance, while the lion's share went to soldiers' basic needs.