Evelyn Rusli, Jakarta – The peace accord between the Indonesian government and Aceh separatists that was agreed upon Sunday will be difficult to implement, given a 30-year relationship between the two sides that has been comprised of violence, mistrust and broken promises, analysts said Monday.
"All hostilities have to end with the signing," the former president of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari, who has been the chief negotiator said Sunday. "Unfortunately, they're still going on."
In Indonesia, sporadic fighting continued around the massive reconstruction effort organized by the government and international aid groups to reshape the province after the tsunami on Dec. 26.
Though top government officials and separatists expressed optimism Monday that the peace deal would succeed, experts were not so optimistic.
They warned that the deep-rooted mistrust between security forces and rebels in Aceh would probably hinder the disarmament and demilitarization called for in the agreement. Nationalist fervor among lawmakers who fear that Aceh might still secede from Indonesia could make it difficult for the treaty to be passed by Parliament.
The agreement itself may be a breakthrough, but it will take a long time to put into action, said Sidney Jones, a regional director of the International Crisis Group and an expert on conflicts in Indonesia. "I think that they seemed to have pulled off the impossible, but the proof of the pudding is in the implementation," she said.
During the conflict, about 15,000 people, including many civilians, were killed. Their villages were razed and their palm oil plantations ruined. The even greater loss of life and property from the tsunami helped show both sides the futility of continued fighting.
The rebels, whose organization is known as the Free Aceh Movement, have suffered significant military defeats in the past 18 months. Their precarious position made them more willing to negotiate and to give up their long-held demand of independence.
But despite these new circumstances, the rebels remain suspicious of the Indonesian Army. It is unlikely that they will disarm if the Indonesian military does not show a sincere effort in pulling back from its overwhelming presence, several experts said. Some also questioned whether the 350 monitors from the EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would be up to the task of overseeing the disarmament.
"There is a possibility the rebels will never fully trust the military because they believe they are responsible for human rights violations," said Ratna Sarumpaet, a human rights advocate. "And the military has been conditioned to see the rebels as the enemy."
Aceh's long track record of broken peace deals also looms over this latest truce. Previous peace deals quickly disintegrated into violence.
There are difficulties not only on the ground, but also in the Indonesian Parliament. One sticking point in the accord's draft is a plan that would allow disarmed rebels to form a local political party.
Vice President Yusuf Kalla told reporters Sunday that "the government will try as hard as it can to create the political and legal situation in support of that."
"The issue right now is whether or not Indonesia's politicians will see this agreement as inconsistent with Indonesian law and whether they think it could lead to independence," said Wiryono Sastrohandoyo a chief negotiator for Indonesia during earlier peace talks.
Indonesian law only recognizes national political parties that are based in Jakarta and that have offices in at least half of the country's provinces.
The peace agreement could remove a threat to Indonesia's territorial integrity, but some government officials are concerned that concessions to the Aceh rebels could inspire other separatists groups to call for similar demands.
There is an independence movement in West Papua Province that some lawmakers find particularly threatening.
"There's a traumatic feeling that we could lose another province, such as the case of East Timor," Sastrohandoyo said. East Timor became independent in 1999 after a United Nations-run referendum ended in a bloody conflict in which the Indonesian Army singled out civilians.
Still, some analysts said there were many things working in the accord's favor and that chances of an enduring peace were much higher this time than in previous times.
The tsunami dramatically altered the province's social and political landscapes, said Yusuf Wanandi, the president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.
Though many Acehenese are in favor of independence or increased self-governance, post-tsunami help from the government and aid groups has changed many people's perspectives, he said.
"The government is starting to get through to the Acehenese people," Wanadi said. "For the first time, the people of Aceh felt that the government and Indonesian people were concerned about them and it convinced them that they are part of Indonesia."