Patrick Walters – Early on Monday evening, Indonesia's next leader sat down in a comfortable armchair beneath the large pendopo, or open-air pavilion, inside the family compound at Cikeas, west Java, to view the election results on a large television screen.
Beside him sat his wife, Kristiani, and his closest advisers and supporters. They included media magnate Surya Paloh, owner of Metro TV – the network carrying the live election coverage – political adviser Rachmat Witoelar, economics guru Joyo Winoto and Zanuba "Yenny" Wahid, daughter of Indonesia's fourth president, Abdurrahman Wahid.
Standing behind them, shunning the media spotlight, was legal adviser and veteran fighter for democracy Marsillam Simanjuntak. As early figures came in from across the archipelago, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's euphoric supporters cheered and clapped as province after province showed their candidate well in front.
The candidate himself remained in a cheerful yet deeply contemplative mood.
He looked relieved but not triumphant – fully conscious of the immense burden soon to descend on his broad shoulders.
At 55, the former army general is about to realise a boyhood dream of becoming a genuine national leader. Thwarted five years ago in his professional ambition to command Indonesia's army, Yudhoyono has a far greater prize in his grasp. Such is his personal popularity that the final result of the presidential race could give him 60 per cent of the national vote compared with 40 per cent for incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri.
For a man who only a year ago had not publicly voiced his ambition to run for the presidency, Yudhoyono's achievement is all the greater. His expected emphatic mandate is the most striking testament to just how far Indonesian democracy has progressed since the fall of Suharto six years ago.
Without the support of a mainstream political party, he has proved a far more formidable competitor than many seasoned political experts predicted only months ago.
"He has managed to create some hope for the people here and that will be his biggest challenge actually," says Yenny Wahid, who has been one of Yudhoyono's inner circle of campaign advisers. "His greatest strength is his perseverance and his ability to relate to people in the friendliest way. People react to that. He will be a president who will talk to the people," predicts Wahid.
An only child born to Javanese parents near Pacitan, East Java, on September 9, 1949, Yudhoyono comes from a family of devout Muslims. His grandfather ran a pesantren, or Islamic boarding school, near Pacitan.
By his own account, his father Sukatjo, a soldier, was a strict disciplinarian. Yudhoyono followed his father into the army, entering the military academy at Magelang, central Java, in 1970. It was the beginning of a stellar career which saw him graduate at the top of his class three years later.
An able student throughout his military career, the popular Yudhoyono topped specialist courses at home and abroad, including infantry training with US Ranger special forces in the US.
"Even then he was talked about as a future Pangab [armed forces chief] or possible future president," observes retired lieutenant-general Agus Widjoyo, who worked closely with Yudhoyono in numerous senior army postings.
Yudhoyono commanded an infantry battalion in East Timor from 1986 to 1988, having had three previous postings to the territory – including a stint with Operation Seroja, the invading force, in 1976. He then served in the Bali regional command before becoming an instructor at the army staff college in Bandung.
He also served as chief military observer with the UN peacekeeping force in Bosnia in 1995-96.
Enjoying rapid promotion, he reached the rank of major-general in 1996, commanding the Palembang region in south Sumatra. He then served as political and social affairs chief of the armed forces before taking up the three-star position as the army's territorial chief in 1998.
For some of his army peers, Yudhoyono, notwithstanding his considerable ability, has been seen as a "seminar general" rather than a true fighting soldier, with most of his senior postings in staff and headquarters positions rather than field commands.
Shunted out of the army against his will in 1999 by then armed forces commander Wiranto, Yudhoyono embarked on a political career, having been appointed minister for mining and energy in president Abdurrahman Wahid's short-lived administration.
He then joined Megawati's cabinet in 2001 as the powerful co-ordinating minister for politics and security. There, he was charged with dealing with the long-running conflict in Aceh as well as the upsurge in terrorism from the extremist Muslim group Jemaah Islamiah – notably the Bali bombing in October 2002 that killed 202 people, including 88 Australians.
Yudhoyono has an easy familiarity with Australia and one of his sons is a student at Curtin University. In October 2003 he attended the Bali memorial service, making a brilliant speech that struck exactly the right note with grieving Australian families.
After his relations with Megawati became increasingly strained, Yudhoyono resigned his cabinet post earlier this year to formally run for president.
No one who knows Yudhoyono well questions his commitment, energy and intellectual capacity – particularly in comparison with Megawati's three years of dilatory rule. He may have always been destined to rule but the key question, asked by Yudhoyono's supporters and detractors alike, is: Can SBY, as he is popularly known, provide the strong leadership and direction needed to lift Indonesia out of its economic malaise?
If there is one consistent observation about SBY, it is that his natural academic bent tends to translate into hesitation and excessive caution.
"I worry that he will become another Nasution," says one of SBY's former military colleagues, referring to the armed forces chief who failed to act decisively in the wake of the attempted coup in 1965, allowing then general Suharto to take the political initiative. "He's too cautious. I think it will be a difficult time for him over the next five years."
Tackled about this perception in an interview with The Australian several months ago, Yudhoyono defended his ministerial record in getting strong new counter-terrorism laws in place and pointed to the difficulties of working under Megawati. "I took risks that were not necessarily seen by the public," he said.
Yudhoyono's expected big winning margin will greatly enhance his presidential authority, allowing him more freedom to pick a genuinely talented cabinet team. In the run-up to this week's election, he refused to enter into horse-trading with rival political parties over possible cabinet posts, and he will come to the job untainted by corruption allegations.
With his fledgling Democratic Party having only 56 seats in the 550-seat parliament, an early test of SBY's political skills will be forming a workable coalition of MPs from other parties, including the biggest, Golkar. The wily Rachmat Witoelar, a former secretary-general of Golkar during the Suharto era, is confident that the lack of a clear parliamentary majority won't become a formidable obstacle.
"He has a strong mandate. At worst, with our partners, he will form a strong minority of around 200 seats."
Witoelar also predicts a shake-up in the Golkar leadership, with a new team expected to be installed within months likely to support Yudhoyono.
Yudhoyono's wide-ranging reform program includes a commitment to personally lead the anti-corruption drive, the promise of a return to higher economic growth rates in Indonesia and much higher spending on education. He supports press freedom and has promised to improve governance across the board, including the troubled legal system.
According to Indonesia's most senior diplomat and former ambassador to Canberra, Wiryono Sastrohandoyo, Yudhoyono should be able to project Indonesia more effectively across the region and the world.
But he stresses that, for Indonesia especially, the foreign policy challenge is as much about pursuing sound domestic policies as anything else.
"The challenge is really how to get a stronger economic recovery. That requires investment, and investment requires better rule of law and better security."
Wiryono, who worked closely with SBY on the Aceh problem, has no doubt about the next president's capability. But he worries that Yudhoyono's ambitious election platform may have created unrealistic expectations, which will be difficult to fulfil given the fiscal constraint that will bind the incoming government.
"The desire to win votes should be tempered by the desire to be honest. Both candidates have exaggerated what they can do. I think it's going to be difficult to implement all those promises," Wiryono says.