Slobodan Lekic – The retired four-star general heading for victory in Indonesia's presidential elections, may use his background to succeed where the country's post-dictator Suharto politicians have so far failed, bringing the powerful military brass under civilian control.
"If anyone can undertake serious reforms in the military, it's [Susilo Bambang] Yudhoyono," said Ken Conboy, a military expert and former deputy director at the Asian Studies Institute in Washington. "Certainly nobody can doubt his credentials for the job," said Conboy, who now lives in Jakarta.
The generals have played the role of kingmaker in Indonesian political life since 1966, when a junta headed by Gen. Suharto ousted founding president Sukarno and ushered in 32 years of military dictatorship.
Suharto used the armed forces to brutally repress any opposition. In exchange, he appointed loyal generals to key government posts and the rubber-stamp legislature. Although their overt role has been declining since Suharto's ouster in 1998, this year they gave up their block of 38 reserved seats in parliament, the generals still retain immense behind-the-scenes influence which many say presents a serious threat to democracy.
The generals were instrumental in forcing both of Suharto's successors, B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid, from office. In 2001, they surrounded the presidential palace with tanks, forcing Wahid to stage a quick exit. His deputy, Megawati Sukarnoputri, was picked for the top job most likely because she promised to give the generals a free hand.
Because the US$2.5 billion defense budget is clearly inadequate, the military has traditionally financed up to 75 percent of its needs through a solid, nationwide network of military-owned companies and foundations. These institutions are beyond government control and are never audited. There is widespread speculation that a large chunk of their profits end up in the pockets of the brass.
Paradoxically, the military, long known for human rights abuses, also has found a new path to legitimacy and influence via the war on terrorism. The US administration, and particularly Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, a former ambassador to Jakarta, see the armed forces as a bulwark against Muslim radicalism in Southeast Asia.
But analysts have repeatedly warned that unless the military is brought under civilian control, Indonesia will never grow into a true democracy. "If there is ever any threat to democracy in Indonesia, it will always first come from the military," said Salim Said, a political columnist and military analyst.
A vast majority of Indonesians have placed their hopes in Yudhoyono, a retired US-trained four-star general who served as Megawati's top security minister, to rein in the armed forces. Despite his close ties with the top brass, he named 16 retired commanders to his campaign team, including former armed forces chief Adm. Widodo Adisutjipto, he is widely regarded as a reformer.
No one denies that the path of military reform will be slow and tortuous. "Washington is very keen to offer some carrots [for military reform] and Yudhoyono is just the man to work with," said Greg Barton, of Australia's Deakin University. "He is still well liked enough by his military institution to get the backing for some changes."
Salim cautioned that Yudhoyono would face an uphill battle if he attempted to implement radical reforms, because serving officers remain indoctrinated with a distrust of civilians and a conviction that they have a right to oversee the affairs of the civilian state. "We need to pour more money [into the defense budget] if we ever hope to have the armed forces function as a professional military," said Erman Amsori from Padjajaran University. "Yudhoyono is the best man we have to do it."
Yudhoyono has already demonstrated his willingness to take on the military in matters which he sees as a serious threat to Indonesia's territorial integrity. In 2002, he negotiated a cease-fire in Indonesia's bloodiest conflict, the long separatist war in Aceh province. But his efforts collapsed when Megawati pulled out of the deal under pressure from hard-line generals. Still, international mediators say they expect the peace process to restart under a Yudhoyono administration.