Aloysius Bhui, Jakarta – Golkar party's decision to choose retired general Wiranto as its nominee for the country's first-ever direct presidential election on July 5 raises hopes that Indonesia will have a new leader who can hasten the pace of economic recovery, despite some misgivings about alleged human rights abuses in East Timor during his term as military chief, analysts said.
Wiranto, one of the country's most powerful men at the height of the country's political crisis back in 1998, may have been seen as a newcomer in the Golkar party, which was founded by former president Suharto. But his success in beating the party's experienced leader Akbar Tandjung through a democratic exercise has proved that he has been able to build strong support within the party, they said.
Analysts said Golkar's two-day convention has helped in restoring Wiranto's reputation to some extent, as the ex-military chief's credentials had been damaged in the past by allegations of human rights abuses in East Timor where hundreds of civilians were killed in military operations before the province broke away in 1999.
They said the race is now open between Wiranto, incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri and another retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, noting that selection of running mates will be crucial in determining the candidates' prospects.
And as far as the economy is concerned, all the three contestants are seen as largely "market-friendly", analysts said.
But to strengthen investor confidence, they must all prove their capability in building a strong coalition so that they will be able to form a stable government with strong support from the parliament, they said.
"Obviously, Wiranto has a big advantage because he is nominated by Golkar, the biggest party," Standard Chartered Bank economist Fauzi Ichsan said.
"Moreover, he is more experienced (compared to Yudhoyono) because after all he reached the top in military and in a way he has been tested in handling the military during a crisis," Ichsan said, referring to the 1998 political chaos which led to Suharto's downfall.
Ichsan said although some people may still try to link Wiranto with human rights abuses in East Timor, or even the outbreak of social unrest in Poso and Maluku during Wiranto's term as military chief, most people accept the fact that "it is not entirely his fault."
He said it may be too early to predict Wiranto's prospects, but added that Wiranto's chances will improve vastly if he is able to pick the right running mate for vice president.
"Yudhoyono is a rising star but people would question his ability to form a strong government because he was supported by the small Democrat party while his running mate is a Golkar, which in fact already has its own strong candidate," he said.
Yudhoyono's running mate for the presidential election is Jusuf Kalla, who resigned from the cabinet earlier this week to contest the polls.
Ichsan also noted that that Wiranto has been trying to rebuild his relationship with former president Abdurrahman Wahid, the founder of the third largest party in the upcoming election, the National Awakening Party (PKB).
"Therefore, if Golkar teams up with PKB, such coalition will be very strong.
Meanwhile, Megawati may keep trying to also approach PKB or otherwise she has to keep Hamzah Haz," he said, adding that Megawati's chances of winning PKB's support are slim.
Umar Juworo, an economist with the Center for Information and Development Studies (CIDES), said he shares the view that Wiranto, like Megawati and Yudhoyono, is market friendly as he favors free markets and foreign investment.
Analysts noted that Indonesia needs to spur foreign direst investment, which has taken a big hit recently, in a big way to accelerate the nation's economic recovery. And for that to happen, a stable government is a prerequisite.
In a recent report, the World Bank said fixed capital formation in Indonesia grew by a meagre 1.4 pct last year, and that the share of investment in GDP (nominal) declined to 19.7 pct in 2003 from 20.3 pct in the previous year.
Juworo said Yudhoyono has won the heart of investors recently, but noted that it may have been short-term investors in the financial market who were cheering him.
To attract foreign direct investment, which is more longer-term oriented in nature, Wiranto could be a better bet, Juworo said.
Wiranto is a better prospect because "Yudhoyono is untested", Juworo said.
"People may question Wiranto's involvement in East Timor but they should accept the fact that he won the Golkar nomination in a democratic way.
That should guarantee that he deserves to contest the election," he said.
He also said that Wiranto is more likely to succeed in forming an alliance with the PKB, rather than Megawati.
"If the coalition can control 40 pct seats in parliament, that's already good enough," he said.
To have a stable government, the presidential candidates must not only win the popular vote, but also parliamentary support given that most of government policies must be approved by the parliament, Juworo said. "That's why PKB is playing a pivotal role," he added.