Dean Yates, Jakarta – The entry into Indonesia's presidential race of a former general indicted for abuses in East Timor will jolt the frontrunner but also makes life tougher for incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
In a surprise result, former military chief Wiranto won the Golkar Party's nomination for president early on Wednesday, edging out its chief Akbar Tandjung.
Wiranto will now be among the frontrunners contesting Indonesia's first direct presidential poll on July 5.
Golkar, the former party of long-ruling autocrat Suharto, has won the most votes in parliamentary elections this month, but it has struggled to throw up candidates who could beat presidential favourite Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or even Megawati.
But the presence of Wiranto, a telegenic man who was rapidly promoted through the ranks by Suharto, changes the complexion of the July 5 race, even though most analysts still expect Yudhoyono to triumph.
But no pairing of candidates is expected to win the required 50 percent in the first round and Yudhoyono is seen clinching the contest only in the second round in September.
Yudhoyono, also a former general, was Megawati's chief security minister until he quit last month. He has surged to presidential favourite by pledging firm leadership and cleaner government.
"Wiranto's going to be stronger competition for SBY than Akbar was. I think SBY still has to be the frontrunner but I think there's a lot of factors now in the equation," said Sidney Jones, head of the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, using Yudhoyono's popular nickname.
"I think it's still pretty grim for Megawati and I think she is a sure loser in any second round."
Wiranto, 55, can offer the same firm leadership Yudhoyono promises. Like Yudhoyono and Megawati, he comes from the main island of Java, where a majority of voters live.
"The real battle now is between Megawati and Wiranto jostling for the number two position [after Yudhoyono]," said Muhammad Qodari, research director of the Indonesian Survey Institute, which has done major polling on the elections.
"Wiranto threatens Megawati because her loss in the parliamentary poll compounds the image that she cannot deliver."
Golkar is set to be the biggest party in parliament with two thirds of the April 5 vote counted, snatching the spot from Megawati's party. But it will only control 25 percent of seats. Yudhoyono is the candidate of the fledgling Democrat Party.
No pushover
Analysts said Golkar decided Wiranto was more electable than Tandjung, who was tarnished by a graft case.
Rully Chairul Azwar, a senior Golkar official, said the party would likely turn to the Nation Awakening Party of former President Abdurrahman Wahid for Wiranto's running mate. However, that did not mean Wahid would get the nod, he said. Wahid's party is third in the parliamentary elections.
Joseph Kristiadi from Jakarta's Centre for Strategic and International Studies said Wiranto would be no pushover.
"Yudhoyono is a new player and there are doubts about whether he's decisive enough. Wiranto, on the contrary, is quite tough, despite the controversy," he said.
That controversy centres on East Timor, although it is an issue for the international community, not Indonesians.
Prosecutors in East Timor have indicted Wiranto over alleged abuses that accompanied the territory's vote to break from Jakarta's rule in 1999. Wiranto, who was military chief at the time, denies any wrongdoing.
One senior Western diplomat who follows East Timor affairs said prosecutors were pressing judges to issue an arrest warrant for Wiranto. That might mean he could face arrest overseas.
Jones said Western countries would deal with Wiranto should he win the presidency, with foreign capitals arguing they could not shun someone democratically elected.
[Additional reporting by Achmad Sukarsono and Olivia Rondonuwu.]