Devi Asmarani, Jakarta – High-profile minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is a dark horse likely to steal the spotlight from incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri as she strives for re-election next year.

While public disappointment has been vented at the Megawati administration and her perceived insipid leadership, Mr Yudhoyono, the Coordinating Minister for Politics and Security, has emerged in a positive light.

While the President has earned criticism for agonising silences and indifference on key issues, the minister has appeared the voice of reason and authority.

Where she was loath to communicate her policies to the public, he took centrestage, headlining the news on terrorism, Aceh and refugees.

Commonly referred to as SBY, the 53-year-old retired general is regarded as a reliable commander. His reputation as a "thinking" general untainted by graft allegations makes him an asset for political parties vying for next year's election.

Others to watch

Akbar Tandjung – The Golkar party chairman is still awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on a graft conviction, but that has not diminished his presidential ambition. He is still in the running with six other contenders vying for the presidency on the Golkar ticket.

Analysts said Mr Akbar's chance of winning the presidency might be slim. If he wins the Golkar convention in April, he would likely join Ms Megawati as her running mate.

Hasyim Muzadi – The chairman of the 40 million-strong Islamic grouping, the Nahdlatul Ulama, has been tipped as potential running mate for some of the presidential contenders such as incumbent president Megawati Sukarnoputri or National Assembly Speaker Amien Rais. However, he has not indicated clearly to whom he will lend his support.

General Wiranto – The former military commander is an early front runner against the six other presidential hopefuls for Golkar. He still wields strong influence within the defence force. Sources said he could team up with former president Suharto's daughter Siti Hardijanti Rukmana if he lost in the Golkar convention.

Lieutenant-General Djoko Santoso – The 51-year-old is one of the army's fastest rising stars and has been tipped as the likely replacement of Army Chief of Staff Ryamizard Ryacudu when the latter moves up to become the Indonesian Military (TNI) Chief. He was named army deputy chief in October, seven months after he was appointed Jakarta military chief.

Some polls have tracked his rising popularity over the past year and predicted that he would be one of the favourites in the 2004 presidential race. Yet, analysts doubt he can win, mostly because of his lack of political constituency.

So far, only the tiny and newly-formed Democrat Party has formally named him as its candidate. Other small parties could throw their support behind him but Mr Yudhoyono's biggest support is likely to come from the Nation Awakening Party (PKB), founded and controlled by former president Abdurrahman Wahid.

Mr Yudhoyono was the coordinating minister for politics and security in the Abdurrahman government before he was sacked near the end of Mr Abdurrahman's 18-month presidency over policy disagreement. But Mr Abdurrahman has hinted he wants Mr Yudhoyono to run for the presidency on the PKB ticket. Like Mr Abdurrahman, Mr Yudhoyono hails from East Java. He was also raised in a Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) family, which could win him legitimacy among millions of its grassroots supporters.

The NU is a 40-million-strong Islamic group founded by Mr Abdurrahman's grandfather. The PKB, a nationalist party whose constituents comprise NU followers, suits Mr Yudhoyono's Muslim nationalist leaning.

To educated voters, he is a leader with integrity and capability who can bring dignity back into the government. But there are doubts that he can beat candidates endorsed by the two largest parties – Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle and Golkar.

The PKB came in fourth in the 1999 election. Since Mr Abdurrahman's impeachment in 2001, the party has been rocked by internal splits and the emergence of new Islamic-based parties targeting NU constituents.

Mr Yudhoyono himself has kept mum about his presidential ambition, preferring to focus on his job as the security czar. Analysts said this approach works best for his image and his political hopes.

Political-risk consultant Budiman Moerdijat said: "SBY will announce his presidential candidacy fairly late in the game. He wants to keep his cards close to his chest to save face."

Right now, there is no guarantee the Democrat Party can meet the electoral threshold in April to nominate a presidential candidate for the July race. A party must win at least 5 per cent of the national votes in the general election in April or secure 3 per cent of parliamentary seats to endorse a presidential candidate.

"He wants to save face, in case the Democrat Party doesn't meet the threshold or in case parties like PKB change their mind about plans to nominate him," said Mr Budiman.

If nothing else, Mr Yudhoyono's approach has distinguished him from the host of presidential hopefuls like National Assembly Speaker Amien Rais and General Wiranto, the former military commander who is vying to run on Golkar's ticket.

Observers say Mr Yudhoyono's lack of mass-base support could be the biggest obstacle to his presidential ambition. At best, they say, he might be heading for the No. 2 job.

Political analyst Sukardi Rinakit, of the Centre for Political Studies, said: "Based on a series of our polling, people like SBY or Cabinet Minister Yusuf Kalla always ranked high in approval for the vice-presidency post. I think this reinforces the idea that some people are designed to be president, while others, no matter how great they are, can only be No. 2."