It was a palace insider, Brutus, who stabbed Julius Caesar from behind, not any external enemy. President Megawati Sukarnoputri also knows that it is highly likely the organized action to pull down her government comes not from outside, but from within her inner circle.

Waves of anti-Megawati street demonstrations staged by student demonstrations since early January have disturbed many Megawati loyalists within her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas and PDIP members within his political faction, such as Mangara Siahaan and Panda Nababan, attended Saturday the 30th anniversary of the party at Bekasi, east of Jakarta.

The rally, in which thousands of PDI-P supporters turned out, was officially touted as a part of the consolidation process in the run-up to the 2004 general elections, but was also used to challenge political figures suspected as the masterminds behind the street demonstrations.

Panda Nababan repeated warnings of the alleged involvement of former Armed Forces Commander Wiranto, former Finance Minister Fuad Bawazier, and former Cooperative Minister Adi Sasono as the men to watch.

Panda Nababan recalled Megawati's direction to the party to stay cool in the face of provocation, but added his own slant. "When party chairwoman Megawati instructed PDI-P cadres to stay cool, this means we have to be sensitive to our surrounding environment.

"We already know those who want to create disturbance," said Nababan, citing Wiranto, Adi Sasono and Fuad Bawazier as the troublemakers.

The scheme of the Kiemas group is apparently to provoke the anti-Megawati forces in what one party source says is a specific agenda of escalating the polarization between the nationalists and the Muslim groups.

Kiemas is said to have enjoyed a close connection with the military and intelligence community since the Suharto era and at one time was identified as an agent reporting to Maj. Gen. (retired) Nichlany Sudardjo.

According to Richard Tanter in his work Intelligence Agencies and the Third World, A Case Study of Indonesia, Nichlany was identified as Deputy II/operations in 1969-1972 and then Assistant Military Attache to the United States in 1973.

This connection suggests that Kiemas is still working with the military ultra-nationalist group who want to aggravate the battle between Megawati and the Islamic forces.

Within the former intelligence body BAKIN, Nichlany was identified as a close ally of General Ali Murtopo and Benny Murdani. Both generals are branded by the Muslim forces as the supporters of the Chinese Catholic groups.

Mobilizing pro-Megawati supporters on to the street would provoke the anti-Megawati movement to radicalize demonstrations, with the likelihood of physical clashes between the pro- and contra-Mega demonstrators.

On the same day of the PDI-P mass gathering at Bekasi, hundreds of motorbike taxi drivers staged demonstrations supporting Megawati and Vice President Hamzah Haz as the legitimate government.

It was later revealed that each participant was paid between Rp30,000 and Rp60,000 to take part in the pro-government demonstration. Some admitted that they were asked by "friends" to demonstrate, but could not identify who these friends were or who they might represent.

Few of the party rank and file joined this demonstration, suggesting that Kiemas failed to mobilize grassroots party cadres to overt and potentially violent action. This suggested that Megawati still holds sway over the rank and file of the party.

The State Secretariat led by State Secretary Bambang Kesowo represents another vulnerable element within her government.

Still fresh in public mind is last year's questioning of Kesowo's alleged involvement in misuse of Presidential Assistance Funds for upgrading police housing. Although a special team of parliament declared Kesowo and the State Secretariat to be not implicated in the scandal, the public was left with the impression that the powerful institution operates as a state within a state, and is effectively beyond the control of the President.

Sources close to Megawati add that her refusal to meet with student activists or the press followed advice from her inner circle to stay aloof.

This provided grist for the mill of Eros Djarot, chairman of the Bung Karno Nationalist Party (PNBK) and a former close advisor to Megawati, when he said that the maneuvers to topple Megawati from within her own circle appeared more coordinated and systematic than those from outside government.