When an independent East Timor was finally proclaimed in May, everyone wanted to come to the party. Australians, particularly, felt a strong affinity with the East Timorese because of the role Australian troops and civilians played in restoring stability after the carnage of 1999. However, unity forged in the face of a common enemy too easily unravels as soon as that enemy has been defeated. This week's fatal riots, in which East Timor's police apparently opened fire on their people, is a sharp reminder of such fragility in the world's youngest nation.
It is easy to look backwards for the causes of Wednesday's violence, when about 600 disgruntled youths rampaged through Dili, attacking the new parliament, businesses and the houses of the Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri.
The East Timorese are, undeniably, a traumatised people. About a quarter of the population perished between 1975 and 1999 under Indonesia's repressive occupation. The violence orchestrated by Indonesian troops in late 1999, after the UN-supervised vote which rejected Jakarta's rule, killed and injured thousands more. For an entire generation, violence has been the only language in which conflicts were resolved.
But this is only part of the story. The huge injection of international aid since 1999 has, almost certainly, raised popular expectations which can't be met, particularly in Dili, where the spending power of foreign personnel has grossly distorted the meagre local economy. Unemployment remains at about 65 per cent and few, beyond the new East Timorese political elite, have visibly benefited from the $2.4 billion of international funds spent so far securing and rebuilding the half-island territory.
With the phased withdrawal of the UN transitional administration, many of the businesses which sprang up to serve the international contingent will fail.
East Timor has no industrial base, few agricultural exports and little prospect of tourism in the short term. Nation-building remains a daunting challenge. International aid pledges are, theoretically, sufficient to support the national budget until income from oil in the Timor Gap comes on line. However, the most immediate demand is for small-scale business projects which might absorb the country's idle, and increasingly agitated, youth.
Looking forward is not easy. At the very least, the emerging wealth gap between East Timor's political elite and the rest must be addressed. With no occupying regime to blame, this may mean confronting corruption among East Timor's own. The Government, too, must establish why its police force confronted an unarmed crowd with guns loaded with live ammunition, not tear gas or rubber bullets. The announcement of an independent commission of inquiry into the violence may help defuse tensions.
Australia's offer this week of assistance for police training and support for the fledgling justice system is positive. However, there are many more long-term tasks, such as ongoing support to strengthen civil institutions at every level to guarantee basic services like health care and education.
Ultimately, East Timor's future is now in its people's hands. For Australia, much is at stake. A failed, or failing nation, directly off Australia's north coast, would pose a real threat to our national security.